利用马尔柯夫过程预测蒙阴县土地利用/覆被格局变化

为了解蒙阴县土地利用/覆被的变化规律及其未来变化,由蒙阴县1997年和2007年2个时期的遥感图像获得的土地利用/覆被数据,确定土地利用/覆被的初始状态矩阵和转移概率矩阵,据此用马尔柯夫模型对研究区的土地利用/覆被格局的未来变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:蒙阴县土地利用/覆被格局正处在一种变化状态,耕地、草地、水域及水利设施用地、未利用地面积在今后一段时期内仍呈减少趋势,到2017年耕地面积比例较2007年减少3.22%,林地、城镇村及工矿交通用地仍呈增加趋势,其中以林地增长幅度较大,到2017年其占比将达到43.45%。根据模拟结果可调整各类土地利用/覆被格局,为宏观决策提供科学依据。

Prediction of land use and land cover patterns in Mengyin County using Mmarkov Chain Model

In order to know the change pattern of land use in Mengyin County, with the data of land use and land cover obtained from TM images in 1997 and 2007, by using Markov Chain Model, a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of land use and land cover were established and then the future tendency of land use and land cover pattern was predicted. The results indicated that land use and land cover pattern is changing, i.e., cultivated land, grass land, water land and unused land will keep on decreasing, by 2017 cultivated land will reduce by 3.22%; however forest land and construction land will continue to increase, forest land will increase fast and reach to 43.45% of the total land area. Land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted according to the prediction, which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of Mengyin County.