快速城镇化地区镇域生态用地变化模拟 及其生态系统服务价值响应

工业化和城镇化快速发展区域生态用地变化剧烈,研究小尺度区域生态用地及生态系统服务价值变化并预测其未来发展趋势,可以为其生态用地保护及土地利用规划提供参考。以宜兴市官林镇为研究区,基于高分辨率遥感影像研究其2009—2015年生态用地变化,采用Logistic回归模型分析变化的影响因素,利用CA-Markov模型模拟研究区2021年和2024年生态用地变化,在此基础上测算其生态系统服务价值响应。结果表明:2009—2015年,官林镇生态用地面积呈持续减少趋势。生态用地变化的主要影响因素包括高程、GDP、人口密度和到河流的距离,随着时间的推移,自然因素对生态用地空间分布的影响逐渐减弱,社会经济因素和区位因素成为最主要的影响因素。2015—2024年生态用地呈迅速减少趋势,其中水田的面积减少最多,9年间净减少358.25 hm~2;而养殖水面呈高速增加趋势,年均增长24.23 hm~2,总体增加了16.97%;生态用地主要转移去向为养殖水面、旱地、工业用地和交通用地。2009—2024年生态系统服务价值持续减少,与水体和耕地变化密切相关。研究结果可为官林镇土地利用规划决策提供依据,同时对保护镇域生态用地和强化生态系统服务具有现实的指导意义。

Simulation of Ecological Land Changes and Corresponding Ecosystem Service Values in Rapid Urbanization Area

Regional ecological land has changed dramatically with the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization. It is essential to study and predict the changes of ecological land and the corresponding ecosystem service value on a small scale in order to provide reference for ecological land protection and land use planning. Taking Guanlin Town in Yixing City as the study area, the ecological land changes from 2009 to 2015 were studied based on high resolution remote sensing image, the influential factors were analyzed by Logistic Regression model, the changes of ecological land in 2021 and 2024 were simulated using CA-Markov model, then the corresponding ecosystem service values were calculated. The results were as follow: 1) Ecological land in Guanlin town decreased from 2009 to 2015, and the main influential factors were elevation, GDP, population density and the distance to river. The influences of natural factors on the changes of ecological land type were gradually weakened with time, while the roles of socio-economic and location factors were gradually intensified. 2)Ecological lands would decrease rapidly from 2015 to 2024, in which paddy field decreased mostly, decreased by 358.25 hm², while aquaculture water increased rapidly, with an annual increase of 24.23 hm², totally increased by 16.97%. Ecological lands mainly were transferred to aquaculture water, dryland, industrial land and traffic land. 3)The corresponding ecosystem service values decreased continuously from 2009 to 2024, significantly correlated with the changes of farmland and water body. The above results can provide reference for land use planning in Guanlin Town and has practical significance in protecting ecological land and in strengthening the ecosystem service as well.