利用马尔科夫过程预测黄河三角洲新生湿地土地利用/覆被格局的变化

在ARC/INFO的支持下,由黄河三角洲3个时期的遥感图像和地形图获得的土地利用／覆被类型数据,确定土地利用／覆被的初始状态矩阵和转移概率矩阵,据此用马尔柯夫链模型对近代黄河三角洲的土地利用／覆被格局的未来变化趋势进行了预测。χ2检验表明,模拟结果与实际情况基本吻合,因此用该模型预测未来土地利用／覆被格局的变化是可靠的。结果表明,黄河三角洲土地利用／覆被格局正处在一种变化状态,耕地、柽柳芦苇地、翅碱蓬獐茅地、滩涂面积逐年减少：而水域、芦苇地、林地、柽柳地、建设用地则逐年增加。到2020年水域将达到6．54％,芦苇地8．02％,林地1．41％,耕地35．20％,柽柳地0．21％,柽柳芦苇地8．10％,翅碱蓬獐茅地5．46％,滩涂4．23％,建设用地30．82％,这预示着近代黄河三角洲人为干扰仍然是土地利用／覆被格局变化的主要方面。根据模拟结果可调整各类土地利用／覆被格局,为宏观决策提供科学依据。

Pridiction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns in Recent Yellow River Delta Using Markov Chain Model

Based on data of land use and land cover obtained from the TM images and topographic maps of the Yellow River Delta of 1986, 1996 and 2001, a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover were worked out with the aid of ARC/INFO software. Future tendency of the land use and land cover pattern was predicted, following the Markov Chain Model. At first, the field data of 2001 was used to validate the model, showing that the model is efficient and suitable for prediction.The results of calculation using the Markov chain model indicate that the land use and land cover pattern is changing. Cultivated land, Amarix chinensisPhragmites land, Suarda heteroptera Aeluropus littoralis var. Sinensis Tamarix chinensis land, mud flat will keep on decreasing, however the area of construction land, water body, Phragmites and Amarix chinensis land will continue to increase. It is predicted that by 2020, water body will occupy 6.54%; Phragmites land 8.02%; forest land 1.41%; cultivated land 35.20%; Amarix chinensis land 0.21%; Amarix chinensis-phragmites land 8.10%; Suarda heteroptera Aeluropus littoralis var. Sinensis Tamarix chinensis land 5.46%; mud flat 4.23%; and construction land 30.82%. This implies that human activity is the main cause to changes in the land cover pattern. According to results of the simulation, the land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted, which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of the recent Yellow River Delta.