石羊河流域水资源对武威市经济发展模式的影响

目的]通过分析甘肃省武威市水资源消费量与产业结构之间的关系,为制定干旱区城市发展策略提供参考。方法]利用IPAT模型的演化方程(IGT方程)以及优化建模软件LINGO 10.0。结果]在1998—2004年无约束的水资源供给条件下,武威市经济增长严重依赖于水资源消费量。2005年开始实施限水措施后,其经济增长对水源消耗依赖程度开始大幅下降,2008年以后处于一种较为稳定的下降状态。通过水资源利用情景模拟,得出最有利于减缓水资源消费量的途径。武威市2015年的水资源消费量为1.67×109 m3,地区生产总值为4.40×1010元。结论]在加速经济增长,合理调整产业结构,加强节水的弱控水条件下,最有利于实现武威市经济与水资源消费稳步发展。

Impact of Shiyang River Water Resource on Economic Developing Model of Wuwei City

Objective] To analyze the relation between water resource consumption and industrial structure quantitatively in Wuwei City, Gansu Province in order to provide references for making development policies for cities in arid areas. Methods] The IGT model deduced by IPAT and optimized modeling software LINGO 10.0 were used. Results] The economic growth of Wuwei City depended heavily on water consumption under the condition of unrestraint water supply during 1998-2004. After the water restriction policy came into force, the degree of economic growth dependence on water consumption began to fell sharply in 2005 and was in a state of relatively steady decline after 2008. Meanwhile, the best model for reducing the demand of water consumption by setting scenarios was found. The water consumption in 2015 was 1.67×10⁹ m³ and the GDP was 4.40×10¹⁰ yuan. Conclusion] Under the condition of accelerating economic growth, adjusting the industrial structure reasonably and strengthening the weak water control of water saving, it would be best for Wuwei City to achieve economic and water consumption steady development.