HBV水文预报模型在白龙江流域的应用研究

目的]在白龙江流域武都站以上区域构建HBV水文模型,通过对区域日径流模拟研究,来评估模型在该区域的适用性。方法]在参数敏感性分析的基础上,对模型参数进行率定和验证,并分析径流和降水量的年际变化特征。结果](1)在率定期Nash—Sutcliffe效率系数Ens=0.65,确定性系数R2=0.74,验证期Ens=0.60,R2=0.70,HBV模型在该流域模拟精度较高,具有较好的适用性;(2)降水量与模拟径流变化趋势对应,HBV模型较好地模拟出了洪水对降水的响应过程。结论]HBV模型可进一步用于研究气候变化对白龙江流域水资源的影响。

Application of HBV Hydrology Model in Bailong River Basin

objective] The conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model, HBV, was examined in the Bailong river basin upstream the Wudu hydrological station, and it was applied to simulate the daily runoff in order to evaluate the applicability of the model in the area. Methods] The parameters of HBV were calibrated and validated on the basis of sensitivity analysis, and the annual variation characteristics of the runoff and precipitation were analyzed. Results] During the calibration period, the E_ns was 0.65, and the R² was 0.74; and during the verification period, the E_ns was 0.60 and R² was 0.70. Both of these indicated that the model could be successfully applied to simulate the daily runoff. Beside, the response of flooding to precipitation can be simulated better to HBV model. Conclusion] The HBV model can be used for further studies of the impacts of climate changes on water resources.