湖南省耕地资源动态变化及其驱动力

目的]研究湖南省1996—2011年耕地资源的变化过程,定量分析耕地变化的驱动因子,并对该区域耕地的变化趋势进行预测,为合理利用和保护耕地资源,促进区域经济的可持续发展和粮食安全生产提供重要参考。方法]利用湖南省近16a的土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,根据研究区域的特点选取了总人口、地区生产总值、农业机械化水平等14个指标,利用主成分分析法对耕地变化的驱动力进行分析,最后采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对研究区域耕地的变化趋势进行预测。结果]1996—2011年湖南省人均耕地面积下降趋势明显,由1996年的0.066 9hm2减少到2011年的0.058 0hm2,该省耕地数量变化存在明显的区域差异。耕地面积变化驱动力主要由人口增长、社会发展、农业生产能力、人民生活水平4个方面构成。预测结果表明,研究区域2014—2020年的耕地面积继续呈下降趋势。结论]湖南省耕地减少速度快,土地垦殖率高,且后备资源贫乏,应加大耕地的保护力度,以促进区域的粮食安全和可持续发展。

Change of Cultivated Land and Its Driving Force in Hu'nan Province

Objective] Based on the land use survey data and the associated socio-economic data from 1996 to 2011, the changes of cultivated land were analyzed in Hu''nan Province. Methods] According to the regional characteristics in the study area, 14 indices, including total population, GDP, agricultural mechanization level, and so on, were selected to elucidate the driving forces of the cultivated land changes using the main reason method. The changing trend of these cultivated lands are predicted using the GM(1,1) model. Results] From 1996 to 2011, the cultivated land area per person of Hu''nan Province decreased from 0.0669 hm² to 0.0580 hm². The cultivated land changed differently in different regions. The driving forces of farmland changes in Hu''nan Province had issues of the social development, the advancement of agricultural production capacity, people''s living standards, and the increase of population. The prediction results showed that the cultivated land area in Hu''nan Province will decrease from 2014 to 2020. Conclusion] Therefore, local government is required to pay extensive attention and take effective measures to protect the cultivated land, as well as to promote regional food security and to ensure the development sustainable.