基于投入视角的山东省农地利用碳排放与经济发展脱钩研究

目的]分析山东省2000—2012年农地利用碳排放与经济发展关系,为该区碳减排工作和农业相关政策的制定提供理论依据。方法]基于农地利用的投入视角,采用碳排放计算模型和脱钩弹性测算方法,计算了2000—2012年山东省17个地级市农地利用碳排放量,及其与经济发展的脱钩关系,将该省划分为不同的脱钩类型,揭示两者的时空演变规律。结果](1)2000—2012年山东省碳排放量增量显著,由7.12×106 t升至8.39×106 t,年均增长9.77×104 t,潍坊市的碳排放量最大,莱芜市的排放量最小。(2)山东省农地利用碳排放强度存在显著的空间差异性,呈东高西低的空间分异格局。(3)山东省主要表现为强脱钩与弱脱钩并存的状态,并以强脱钩为主。(4)山东全省脱钩类型空间分布规律较明显,强脱钩分布广泛,弱脱钩集中于西南地区。结论]山东省农地利用碳排放和经济发展存在一种科学的、合理的脱钩弹性关系,但仍需加大对于农地利用的科技投入,合理分配农用物质的投入比例。

Input Perspective-Based Decoupling of Carbon Emissions of Agricultural Land Utilization and Economic Development in Shandong Province

Objective] By exploring the link between carbon emission of agricultural land utilization and economic development in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012, theoretical reference to carbon emission reduction and low-carbon economy development was provided to facilitate the formulation of agricultural policy. Methods] From the input perspective of agricultural land utilization, applying carbon emission calculation model and decoupling elasticity method, this article calculated the carbon emissions of agricultural land utilization in 17 prefecture-level cities of Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012, and demonstrated the decoupling relationship between economic development and the carbon emissions on agricultural land utilization. Decoupling were classified into different types, upon which, the association evolvement of carbon emission and economic development was elucidated. Results] (1) Carbon emissions had grown significantly in Shandong Province during 2000 to 2012. It was 7.12 million tons in 2000, and it was 8.39 million tons 12 years later, with an average annual increase of 97,700 tons. Weifang City contributed the most, while Laiwu City was the least. (2) There was a significant spatial differences in carbon intensity of agricultural land utilization in Shandong Province, with a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west. (3) Decoupling was prevailed widely by strong decoupling, though both strong and weak decoupling existed. (4) Decoupling was obvious spatially distributed. Of which strong decoupling was common, and weak decoupling mainly was concentrated in the Southwest. Conclusion] The decoupling elasticity between agricultural land utilization emissions and economic development was reasonable to some extent in Shandong Province, but government still needs to increase the investment in science and technology for agricultural land utilization, and to make a reasonable assignment of material inputs for agricultural use.