陕西省人均生态足迹动态变化及驱动模型研究

以熊德龙等改进的生态足迹理论为基础,分析了陕西省1990-2007年人均生态足迹的动态变化,并利用主成分分析和多元性线性回归方法,分析了人均生态足迹驱动力并建立驱动模型。结果表明,陕西省人均生态足迹从1990年的0.818hm²上升到2007年的2.854hm²,人均生态承载力略有下降,说明陕西省始终处于生态赤字状态。2003年以后陕西省生产性生态足迹大于消费性生态足迹,区域生态资源呈输出状态,社会经济发展对能源产业依赖性更加明显。陕西省人均生态足迹动态变化是人口、经济、环境、技术、土地利用程度等多方面因素综合作用的结果,经济增长与重工业率提高是生态足迹动态变化的主要驱动因素。

Dynamic Changes of Ecological Footprint and Its Driving Model in Shaanxi Province

Dynamic of ecological footprint and its driving mechanism are of great significance for the regional sustainable development.In this study,the productive ecological footprint per capita of Shaanxi Province during 1990-2007was calculated according to modified ecological footprint theory by Xiong Delong.Driving factors of per capita ecological footprint was analyzed by using the principal component analysis,and driving model was constructed by using the multivariate linear model.The results showed that:the ecological footprint per capita in Shaanxi Provincial increased from 0.818hm² in 1990to 2.854hm² in 2007,while ecological carrying capacity per person decreased slightly,and regional development showed ecological deficit.Compared with the traditional consumptive ecological footprint,Shaanxi Province occupied ecological resources of other areas before 2003,but relied on resources outputting for development after 2003.Factors such as population, economy,environment,technology and land use were closely related to ecological footprint per capita. The development of economy and increasing of heavy industry were the main factors that drive the dynamic changes of ecological footprint.