基于ArcGIS的安徽省用水强度驱动效应空间格局分析

目的]探索用水强度驱动效应空间关联格局,为制定优化水资源配置及实行最严格水资源保护政策提供依据。方法]以安徽省为例,运用完全分解模型,对用水强度驱动效应进行测算;基于ArcGIS平台,运用Kriging插值及热值分析方法,对用水强度驱动效应空间关联格局及热点(冷点)地区进行考察。结果](1)2011—2014年,技术效应均值为94.09%,结构效应均值为5.91%;(2)技术效应、结构效应半变异函数分析块金系数分别为1,0.843 9,空间自相关性弱,整体结构性差,区域差异明显;(3)技术效应、结构效应热点与冷点地区分别占总数的31.25%,37.5%,温点地区占68.75%,62.5%,分布于皖江中下游、皖南地区及皖北的蚌埠市。结论]用水强度驱动效应空间异质特征显著,技术创新与结构调整为提升区域用水强度的重要途径。

ArcGIS-based Analysis of Drivers' Spatial Patterns of Water Use Intensity in Anhui Province

Objective] The spatial correlation pattern of water intensity drivers was explored to provide basis for the policy formulation of optimizing water resources allocation and for implementing the most rigorous water resources protection policy.Methods] Taking Anhui Province as an example, the effects of different drivers on water use intensity were calculated using the complete decomposition model. And then ArcGIS-based Kriging interpolation and calorific value analysis methods were used to investigate the spatial correlation pattern and to find out the hot spots/cold spots of water use intensity.Results] (1) From 2011 to 2014, the technical effect was valued at 94.09%, and the structural effect was 5.91%; (2) The coefficient nuggets of semi-variogram of the technical effect and structure effect were 1 and 0.843 9. The spatial autocorrelation was weak as the overall structure variance was poor, but the regional differences was obvious. (3) Hot spot plus cold spot areas of technical and structural effects of covered for 31.25% and 37.5% of the total provincial area, and moderate areas of the two effects accounted for 68.75% and 62.50%, mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of Wanhe River, in South Anhui, and in Bengbu City.Conclusion] The spatial heterogeneity of drivers of water use intensity was significant. Technological innovation and structural adjustment are considered as two important ways to enhance regional water use intensity.