基于可变模糊评价法的塔里木河流域水资源承载力研究

结合塔里木河流域2005年自然、社会和经济以及水资源资料,应用可变模糊评价模型对塔里木河流域水资源状况进行了评价研究。研究结果表明:(1)该方法能够科学、合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度、相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变化模型及其参数,合理地确定出样本的评价等级,提高对样本等级评价的可信度。(2)塔里木河流域水资源承载能力综合评价为2级,水资源开发利用已有相当规模,应由耗水型经济结构向节水型经济结构转变,并加强水资源的综合管理,以便科学、合理地利用流域内有限水资源。

Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tarim River Basin Using a Variable Fuzzy Model

Based on the data of environment,society,economy,and water resources of Tarim River basin in 2005,we evaluated the water resource carrying capacity of the basin using a variable fuzzy model.The results show that the method identified reasonably the relative degree of membership and relative membership function of the individual index in each index group,and it also determined properly the classes that each sample belongs to by changing the model with its parameters,greatly improving the reliability of the assessment.The water resources carrying capacity of Tarim River basin belongs to the second class,showing a high degree of water resource utilization level.It is important to improve the water carrying capacity by adopting some fundamental measures,which include converting the economic structure from water over-consuming to water saving,balancing water uses among the areas of the upper and lower reaches,carrying out integrated schemes of water exploitation and utilization,and developing a decision-making supporting system covering the whole Tarim River basin.