基于组合思路的天津地区洪涝脆弱性评价研究

洪涝灾害是世界主要自然灾害之一,对区域洪涝灾害脆弱性进行评价研究对防洪减灾工作有重大意义。在综合考虑天津地区13个区/县的自然条件、社会经济及防灾减灾情况基础上,建立了洪涝灾害脆弱性指标评价体系。为减少评价过程的主观性,采用组合的思路对传统的综合评价模型进行优化,并应用于天津地区洪涝灾害脆弱性综合评价研究中。评价结果表明,天津地区洪涝脆弱度总体水平较高,地区间脆弱度差异明显。在所有评价单元中以位于东部地区的塘沽、汉沽、宁河、东丽4区县脆弱度最高。该研究结果可为区域今后制定经济发展规划和开展防洪减灾工作提供理论支撑。

Vulnerability Assessment for Flood Disasters in Tianjin Region Based on a Combination Idea

Flood disaster is one of the world′s main natural disasters.The study of vulnerability assessment is greatly helpful to regional flood control.After considering natural conditions,socioeconomic situation,and disaster prevention/reduction measures in the 13 districts of Tianjin region,a flood vulnerability assessment index system was firstly established.In order to reduce the subjectivity in the assessing process,a combination idea was adopted to optimize traditional comprehensive assessment model and then assess the flood vulnerability in the region.Results from the assessment showed that Tianjin region was overall in a high level of flood vulnerability and vulnerabilities in different districts had significant difference.For all the assessment units,Tanggu,Hangu,Ninghe,and Dongli districts or counties in the eastern area of Tianjin region had the highest flood vulnerability.This conclusion may provide a theoretical support for Tianjin region to formulate economic development planning and carry on flood control works.