湖北省粮食生产及其影响下的土地资源承载力格局

目的]为科学评估湖北省土地资源和人口可持续发展现状,对湖北省1949—2012年的粮食生产特征和土地资源承载力进行分析。方法]通过引入粮食生产相对波动指数、土地资源承载力模型和土地资源承载指数模型进行详细评估。结果]研究期内湖北省粮食生产呈周期性波动特征,生产过程受自然灾害和政策影响显著,平衡外界影响因素能力薄弱,容易出现起伏;人口增幅小于粮食产量增幅,人均粮食占有量呈4个明显波动周期;2012年湖北省土地资源承载力主要以人口超载、粮食短缺为主要特征。中部平原湖区耕地资源丰富,人粮关系协调,为粮食盈余区域;西部山区和东南部武汉城市圈耕地资源缺乏,人口压力较大,粮食短缺,为人口超载区域。结论]保护耕地,发展农业科技,提高单产,扩大农业生产规模和稳定粮食生产政策是切实保障湖北省农业稳定发展的重要途径。

Characteristics of Grain Production and Spatial Pattern of Land Carrying Capacity in Hubei Province

Objective] The characteristics of grain production and land carrying capacity in Hubei Province from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed in order to provide theoretical support for decision-making and overall planning in land resources use and population sustainable development.Methods] Relative fluctuation index, land resources carrying capacity(LCC) model and land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI) model were introduced to evaluate the grain production and the spatial pattern of land carrying capacity.Results] (1) During 1949-2012, there were six stages in the development of annual grain production in Hubei Province. Grain production showed an upward tendency with periodic fluctuations caused by natural disasters and policy.(2) The growth rate in population was less than that in grain yields. Per capita grain showed four obvious fluctuation periods.(3) Food deficits and overpopulation remained primary characteristics of land carrying capacity in Hubei Province in 2012. The grain surplus areas were located in the middle part of Hubei Province, while the overpopulated areas were located in the western mountainous region and southeast of Wuhan urban circle.Conclusion] Protecting arable land, developing science and technology, increasing yield per unit area, expanding the scale of production, and implementing sound policy is essential to the sustainable development of agriculture in Hubei Province.