降雨因子对喀斯特石漠化发生发展的影响研究

石漠化的形成有其深刻的自然背景与社会背景,研究石漠化发生发展的驱动机制是喀斯特脆弱生态系统恢复与重建的必要条件。为了定量研究气候要素对石漠化发生发展的影响,综合选取地理要素、气候要素、人口要素、社会经济要素、人地关系要素中对石漠化具有驱动作用的因子。用这些驱动因子与石漠化指数进行相关性分析,并选取显著相关的部分驱动因子进行偏最小二乘回归分析。利用变量投影重要性指标（VIP）来定量衡量各驱动因子对石漠化影响的重要性,从而定位气候要素对石漠化发生发展影响的作用。分析认为石漠化的发生发展主要是由自然地理因子决定的,自然气候要素特别是暴雨为石漠化的发生发展提供了直接的驱动力,并随着雨量级的增加其对石漠化的驱动作用越强。

Impact of Precipitation Factor on Rocky Desertification in Karst Areas

The rocky desertification is a result of both nature processes and societal activities.Studying the driving mechanism of the rocky desertification is a prerequisite of restoring and rebuilding the karst fragile ecosystem.In order to quantify the effect of the climatic factor on the rocky desertification,all potential driving forces were selected including elements of physical geography,climate,population,community economy and the man) land relationships.These elements were correlated to a rocky desertification index,and the significant factors were then used in the patrtial least square(PLS) regression analysis.The significance of all kinds of driving factors for the rocky desertification were judged quantitatively by utilizing a variable importance projection(VIP)index.T he analysis shows that the physical geography element is the primary factor causing the rocky desertification,but the climatic element,especially precipitation amounts,is one of the direct driving forces,which increases as precipitation levels increase.