人口和经济增长对耕地资源影响的计量分析

在对贵州省毕节地区耕地面积、城镇化率、区域经济增长趋势变化分析的基础上,运用多元回归分析,探讨耕地面积与固定资产投资额、工业生产总值及城镇化率之间关系。结果表明,该区耕地面积从1988年的4.02×105hm2下降到2008年的3.65×105hm2,年平均递减率为0.48%。人均耕地面积由1988年的0.069 hm2下降到了2008年的0.047 hm2,年均递减率为1.90%;固定资产投资、工业发展、城镇化率对耕地面积的减少都有显著影响,弹性系数分别为-0.030,-0.002和-0.046,其中人口城镇化对耕地面积减少的影响最大。20 a间毕节地区城镇化的发展导致耕地非农化的产生,仍然是以牺牲耕地资源为代价,城市土地的集约节约利用水平有待提高。

Influences of Population and Economic Development on Cultivated Land Resource

Based on the analysis of Bijie Citys cultivated land,the rate of urbanization and the changes of regional economic growth trends,the article selected multiple-regression model to study the relationship between area of cultivated land and investment of fixed assets,industrial out put and urbanization.The results showed that cultivated area had been reduced from 4.02×10⁵hm ^{2in 1988 to 3.65×105 hm2 in 2008 with annual average decline rate 0.48%,meanwhile,percapita arable land also reduced from 0.069hm2in 1988 to 0.047 hm2in 2008 with the annual average decline rate 1.90%.Fixed asset investment,industrial development and urbanizat ion had significant impacts on the reduction of arable land,and their elasticity coefficients were-0.030,-0.002,-0.046,respectively,among which population urbanization exerted the greatest influence.During the past 20 years,the development of urbanization had led to non-agricult uralization of farm land at the expense of the arable land resource.Theref ore,the level of the intensive and economical use of urban land needs to be improved.}