三峡库区生态经济区用地结构变化及演变趋势--以重庆市梁平县为例

根据1999-2007年土地利用统计资料,借助信息熵原理及马尔科夫转移矩阵模型对梁平县土地利用结构动态演变进行了实例分析.结果表明,梁平县土地利用结构信息熵H经历了3个阶段:1999-2002年持续上升阶段,2002-2003年急速回落阶段及2003-2007年波动阶段,均衡度变化与信息熵相似.用地类型主要由耕地转向林地、交通用地、居民点及工矿用地.运用RBF神经网络模型对研究区的土地变化进行理论趋势值分析表明,研究区内土地利用变化以农用地转化为交通用地和居民点及工矿用地的趋势最强,由此趋势在今后一段时期内,农用地将持续减少,耕地保护与建设用地扩张的矛盾将尤为突出.建议大力开展土地开发整理,特别是农村居民点的整理归并,同时积极挖掘存量建设用地,走高效、集约的土地利用之路.

Landuse Structure Change and Its Evolving Tendency of Ecological Economic Zone in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area -A Case Study of Liangping County , Chongqing Municipality

According to landuse statistic data from 1999 to 2007, the dynamic evolution of land use structure of Liangping County of Chongqing Municipality is exemplified based on information entropy principle and Markov transfer matrix model. Results show that information entropy H of Liang ping County' s landuse structure has undergo ne three stages, that is, 1999-2002 continual rising stage, 2002-2003 sharply decreasing stage, and 2003-2007 fluctuating stage.nChange in the degree of balance and dominance is similar to information entropy. Land types have been mainly transferred from cultivated land to woodland and lands for traffic, residential set tlements, and industry mining.The theoretical trend values of LUCC in the study area are analyzed by RBF neural network model. The trend that cultivated land is shifted into lands for traffic, residential settlements, and industry mining is the most dominant .From this tendency, cultivated land may be continuously reduced in the future and the contradiction between cultivated land conservation and the enlargement of urban building land becomes more serious. It is suggested to give energetic supports to land exploitation and reorganization, especially rural residential areas' combination and reorganization. Simultaneously, the works on excavating reserved constructional land positively and making landuse effective and intensive should be strengthened.