华北平原地下水资源承载力模糊综合评价

华北平原地下水资源承载力评价对保障水资源-生态环境-社会经济协调可持续发展具有极其重要的意义。采用模糊综合评价方法对华北平原市级地下水资源承载力进行分析,并结合灰色关联理论进一步探讨地下水资源承载力的影响因素。结果表明,华北平原地区各城市地下水资源承载力平均得分为0.38,其中尚具一定开发潜力的仅占19.0%,已接近开发潜力和地下水资源已严重超采且已出现地质环境问题的分别占38.1%和42.9%,总体承载力很小。经计算,地下水资源开采量与人口、第一产业产值、第三产业产值、GDP、工业产值的灰色关联度依次为:0.71,0.63,0.59,0.58和0.56,故影响华北平原地下水承载力最主要的因素为人口的剧增,农业灌溉用水的增加以及社会经济高速发展等社会因素。

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Groundwater Resources Carrying Capacity in North China Plain

Groundwater resources carrying capacity evaluation is extremely important in preserving harmonious and sustainable development of water resources, ecosystem, society and economy. In this study, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of the groundwater resources carrying capacity in North China Plain(NCP) was conducted and grey relational theory was used in analyzing the influencing factors of groundwater resources carrying capacity. The results showed that the mean value of groundwater carrying capacity in cities of NCP was 0.38, among which cities that of much developed in groundwater but still with a little exploitation potential accounted for 19.0% of the total, while that close to potential and over-exploitation accounted for 38.1% and 42.9%, respectively. So groundwater resources had been over-exploited with extremely weak carrying capacity in NCP. The grey correlation degrees of groundwater exploitation with population, the first industry output, the third industry output, GDP and industry output were 0.71, 0.63, 0.59, 0.58, and 0.56, respectively. Generally, the most important influencing factors of the groundwater resources carrying capacity in NCP were the growth of population, the increased agriculture irrigation and the rapid economic and social development.