安徽省城镇化演进边际生态环境效应的测度与分析

以安徽省为例,构建了由32个指标组成的城镇化与生态环境质量评价体系。采用主成分分析综合评价方法,对城镇化与生态环境质量进行了综合评价;并借鉴随机回归影响模型(STIRPAT模型),采用偏最小二乘回归方法,对城镇化演进的边际生态环境效应进行了测度。研究结果表明:(1) 安徽省城镇化综合评价指数由1996年的43.83上升至2011年的83.83,呈波动递增态势。(2) 安徽省生态环境综合评价指数由1996年的40.95上升至2011年的80.95,整体呈上升态势,反映了该区生态环境质量良好。(3) 安徽省城镇化演进与生态环境质量呈正向关联关系,城镇化演进对生态环境具有弱正向效应,其边际弹性系数为0.010 2。

Measurement and Analysis on Marginal Eco-environmental Effects of Urbanization Evolution in Anhui Province

Taking Anhui Province as an example, quality evaluation system of eco-environment and urbanization level, which were composed of thirty-two indexes was constructed. A comprehensive assessment of the urbanization and the eco-environmental quality was completed by the method of principal component analysis. The marginal eco-environmental effect of the urbanization evolution was measured by using the STIRPAT(stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model and partial least squares regression method. The results showed that:(1) Comprehensive appraisal index of the urbanization which presented fluctuating increment rose from 43.83 in 1996 to 83.83 in 2011;(2) The comprehensive appraisal index of eco-environment rose from 40.95 in 1996 to 80.95 in 2011, and it showed steady increasing state in general, indicating that the quality of eco-environment was better.(3) The urbanization evolution and the eco-environmental quality presented positive correlation, and the urbanization evolution showed weak positive effects on the eco-environment, the marginal elastic coefficient was 0.010 2.