丰水型城市水资源承载力变化与提升途径——以南京市为例

丰水型城市既有一般城市的水资源承载力特征,又有其一定的特殊性。在分析城市水资源特性及利用方式的基础上,以丰水型城市南京市为例,采用综合评价方法,分析了2006-2010年南京城市水资源承载力的变化过程。结果表明,南京城市水资源承载力总体上呈增长态势,大致处于适载范围内,但承载力有限、波动明显。采用敏感性分析法分析了影响承载力变化的主要因素,进而选择人均GDP、万元GDP用水量、城市人均日生活用水量和污水处理率4项敏感性指标,开展了水资源承载能力提升途径的情景分析。在此基础上指出,提高生产、生活用水效率,节约宝贵水资源,辅以污水处理率的稳步提升是丰水型城市稳定和提升水资源承载力的主要途径,并根据不同城市类型提出了相应的提升建议。

Changing and Promoting Approaches of Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity-A Case Study of Nanjing City

Water-rich city not only has the general characteristics of urban water resources carrying capacity, but also has its certain particularity. According to the characteristics of the formation and utilization of urban water resources, the changes of urban water resources carrying capacity from 2006 to 2010 were analyzed by taking a water-rich city, Nanjing City, as a case, with comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that the urban water resources carrying capacity of Nanjing City was rising on the whole, roughly in suitable load range, but the carrying capacity was limited with obviously fluctuation. The sensitivity analysis is applied to find out which indicators are the key factors for the changes of Nanjing urban water resources carrying capacity. On this basis, GDP per capita, water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP, urban daily water consumption per capita and the rate of sewage treatment are selected as four indicators for urban water resources carrying capacity promotion scenario analysis. It is find out, to strictly control the water consumption per ten thousand Yuan GDP and urban daily water consumption per capita, and steadily enhance the rate of sewage treatment, are very important to promote Nanjing urban water resources carrying capacity, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward.