宁夏旱涝灾害对气候变化的响应

利用宁夏回族自治区20个气象站自建站以来到2012年共52 a的降水数据资料,运用趋势线、滑动平均等数理分析方法对宁夏52 a以来的降水变化特征进行了分析,并应用降水Z指数和正负20%的降水距平指标对宁夏的旱涝灾害特征进行了分析。最后基于信息预测理论的对称性及可公度法,对宁夏未来的旱涝灾害进行了趋势判断。结果表明:(1)宁夏52 a年降水量以8.57 mm/10 a的速度递减,从20世纪90年代起干旱化趋势明显。(2)宁夏旱涝灾害交替发生,旱涝出现的频率为32.7%和28.7%,降水正常年份仅占38.5%。(3)宁夏旱涝灾害的发生具有显著对称性周期特征,未来发生旱灾的可能年份是2014和2015年,发生涝灾的可能年份是2017年。

Response of Drought and Flood Disasters to Climate Change in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

According to 52-year precipitation data from 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region from their establishments in 2012, the mathematical analysis methods such as the trend line method and 5-year moving average method were applied to analyze the precipitation variation characteristics in more than 50 years, and the precipitation Z index and the precipitation anomaly indicators of plus or minus 20% points were also used to analyze the characteristics of droughts and floods in the region, then a trend judgment of the droughts and floods was made based on the symmetry of information forecast theory and commensurable calculation method. The results showed:(1) The precipitation in more than 50 years of Ningxia region was reduced at a rate of 8.57 mm/10 a, and the arid trend was obvious since 1990s;(2) The drought and flood disasters occurred alternately, the frequency of drought and flood was 32.7% and 28.7%, respectively, and it was only 38.5% in a normal year;(3) The droughts and floods occured with obvious characteristics of symmetry cycle, the drought years may occur in 2014 and 2015, floods may occur in 2017.