浙江省工业化、城市化与建设占用耕地规模的关系——基于工业化和城市化阶段划分的视角

目的]探索不同工业化和城市化阶段,浙江省工业化、城市化与建设占用耕地规模之间的计量关系。方法]采用多元逐步回归分析方法。结果](1)浙江省工业化经历了初期、中期和后期3个阶段,而城市化仅经历初期和中期。两者之间的发展历程并不完全协调。(2)浙江省历年耕地面积呈明显的下降态势,下降速度为"先快后慢"。而历年建设占用耕地面积并没有明显的变化特征,总体上可以概括为在起伏中逐渐增加。从工业化初期到中期、后期,该省年均建设占用耕地面积"先增加后基本平稳"。从城市化初期到中期,年均建设占用耕地面积逐渐增加。(3)在整个研究期间,浙江省城市化的发展导致了建设占用耕地面积的增加;而工业化的发展并没有引起建设占用耕地面积的变化。还有其他因素导致浙江省建设占用耕地面积的变化。(4)在工业化发展的不同阶段,工业化或城市化的发展对建设占用耕地面积的影响是不同的。而在城市化的初期和中期阶段,工业化和城市化的发展都没有引起建设占用耕地面积的变化。结论]工业化和城市化的发展并非会引起建设占用耕地面积增加,相反两者可能会起到保护耕地的作用。

Relationship Between Cultivated Land Occupation by Construction and Industrialization & Urbanization in Zhejiang Province-Based on Perspective of Stage Division of Industrialization and Urbanization

Objective] From the perspective of stage division of industrialization and urbanization, the paper was to explore the econometrics analysis between the scales of cultivated land occupation by construction and industrialization & urbanization in Zhejiang Province.Methods] Multiple stepwise regression analysis was used.Result] (1) The industrialization process of Zhejiang Province had experienced three stages, namely the initial, middle and late stages. However, the urbanization process is still in its middle stage at present. The developments of the two processes are not fully coordinated.(2) During the study period, the scale of cultivated land in Zhejiang Province showed a significant downward trend with a quick-to-slow rate. While the area of cultivated land occupation by construction had no obvious change, in general, it showed a zigzag increase. From the initial stage to the middle and late stages of industrialization, the annual average area of cultivated land occupation by construction firstly increased then decreased in Zhejiang Province. And from the initial stage to the middle stage of urbanization, the annual average area of cultivated land occupation by construction gradually increased.(3) In the duration of our study, the development of urbanization resulted to the area increase of cultivated land occupation by construction in the province. But the development of industrialization did not lead to the area change of cultivated land occupation by construction. There might be other factors that resulted to the area changes of cultivated land occupation by construction.(4) During different stages of industrialization of Zhejiang Province, industrialization or urbanization had played different roles on the cultivated land occupation by construction. In the early and middle stage of urbanization, the development of industrialization and urbanization did not give rise to the area change of cultivated land occupation by construction.Conclusion] The development of industrialization and urbanization does not result to the area increase of cultivated land occupation by construction all the time. On the contrary, industrialization and urbanization can contribute to the protection of cultivated land.