张家界市景观格局时空演变及未来情景模拟

目的] 分析湖南省张家界市2000—2020年及2030年土地利用及景观格局演变特征，提出张家界市未来发展的优化策略，为张家界市国土空间规划和生态旅游发展提供参考。方法] 基于2000—2020年5期土地利用数据，运用ArcGIS空间分析、Fragstats景观格局指数等方法，分析了2000—2020年张家界市土地利用及景观格局时空变化，并利用GeoSOS-FLUS土地利用模拟等软件对张家界市2030年土地利用变化及景观格局进行预测。结果] 2000—2020年张家界市土地利用变化主要表现为草地面积的大幅减少和建设用地的显著增加；2000—2020年张家界市景观格局发生了较明显的改变，景观的整体异质性和破碎化先增加后降低，斑块形状趋于规则，景观类型分布较均匀，景观聚集程度逐渐趋于稳定状态；预测结果显示，2030年张家界市土地利用主要表现为建设用地的集中扩张和草地的持续减少，其景观破碎化和异质性呈加剧态势，优势景观的最大斑块面积增加，景观形状变得更加不规则，景观有进一步分散趋势。结论] 运用GeoSOS-FLUS模型模拟未来土地利用状况具有较高的可信度，未来张家界市应以保护、优化景观格局为主，加强优良生态系统管控。构建自然保护地体系，加强生态廊道建设，完善生态系统完整性和景观连通性。保持林地优势景观，优化建设用地布局，降低林地和建设用地的破碎化程度，保护草地生态系统的完整性。

Spatiotemporal Evolution and Simulation of Future Landscape Patterns in Zhangjiajie City

Objective] The evolution characteristics of land use and landscape patterns from 2000 to 2020 and 2030 at Zhangjiajie City, Hu''nan Province were analyzed in order to propose an optimization strategy for future development of Zhangjiajie City, and to provide references for territorial space planning and eco-tourism development for Zhangjiajie City.Methods] We analyzed land use change data for Zhangjiajie City from 2000 to 2020 using ArcGIS spatial analysis and Fragstats landscape pattern index. We used GeoSOS-FLUS land use simulation software to predict land use changes and landscape patterns for Zhangjiajie City in 2030.Results] The land use changes were mainly manifested as a significant decrease in grassland area and a significant increase of construction land from 2000 to 2020. The landscape pattern changed significantly from 2000 to 2020. The overall heterogeneity and fragmentation of the landscape increased first and then decreased, and the shapes of patches tended to be regular. The distribution of landscape types was relatively uniform, and the degree of landscape aggregation degree gradually tended to be stable. In 2030, the land use of Zhangjiajie City was mainly manifested in the concentrated expansion of construction land and the further reduction of grassland. Landscape fragmentation and heterogeneity in Zhangjiajie City showed an increasing trend. The maximum patch area of the dominant landscape increased. The landscape shape became more irregular, and the landscape had a further dispersion trend.Conclusion] The use of the GeoSOS-FLUS model to simulate future land use had high reliability. In the future, Zhangjiajie City should focus on protecting and optimizing the landscape pattern, and strengthening the management and control of the excellent ecosystem. We recommend the building of a nature reserve system, strengthening the construction of ecological corridors, and improving the integrity of ecosystem and landscape connectivity. We also recommend maintaining the dominant landscape of forest land, optimizing the layout of construction land, reducing the fragmentation of forest land and construction land, and protecting the integrity of the grassland ecosystem.