基于CRITIC-GR-TOPSIS法的烟台市水资源承载力综合评价

目的] 对山东省烟台市水资源承载具体状况进行定量与定性分析，提出相应提高水资源承载力的对策和建议，为实现烟台市水资源可持续发展提供科学参考。方法] 建立涵盖水资源、社会、经济和水环境4个准则层的评价指标体系，运用CRITIC-GR-TOPSIS法，对2003—2018年烟台市水资源承载力进行综合评价，以相对贴近度C_j作为综合评价值，C_j越大表明水资源承载力越高，并采用障碍度模型量化各指标对水资源承载力的影响程度。结果] 2003—2018年烟台市水资源承载力整体呈现上升趋势，从2003年的0.449 7上升至2018年的0.578 3。通过障碍度模型计算发现，社会和水环境子系统内各指标对于水资源承载力的影响不断加大，而经济子系统相关指标对烟台市水资源承载力的影响不断减弱，水资源子系统内各指标则在此期间保持稳定且较高的影响水平。结论] 2003—2018年烟台市水资源承载力有所上升，但其上升幅度并不明显，未来仍有广阔的提升空间。

Comprehensive Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Yantai City Based on CRITIC-GR-TOPSIS Method

Objective] The specific situation of water resources carrying capacity in Yantai City of Shandong Province was quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions was put forward to improve the water resources carrying capacity, in order to provide a reference for the sustainable development of water resources in Yantai City.Methods] The evaluation index system covering water resources, society, economy and water environment was established, and the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of Yantai City from 2003 to 2018 was carried out by CRITIC-GR-TOPSIS method, with a relative closeness C_j as a comprehensive evaluation value. The larger the C_j, the higher the water resources carrying capacity. The obstacle degree model was used to quantify the impact of each indicator on the water resources carrying capacity.Results] From 2003 to 2018, the water resources carrying capacity of Yantai City showed an overall upward trend, from 0.449 7 in 2003 to 0.578 3 in 2018. Through the calculation of the obstacle degree model, it was found that the influence of each index of the social and water environment subsystems on the carrying capacity of water resources continues to increase, while the impact of the related index of the economic subsystem on the carrying capacity of water resources in Yantai City was weakening. Each index of the water resources subsystem maintained a stable and high level of influence during this period.Conclusion] From 2003 to 2018, the water resources carrying capacity of Yantai City has increased, but the increase rate, is not obvious, and there is still broad space for improvement in the future.