长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流的治理工程效果评估与减灾策略——以金沙江白鹤滩水电站为例

目的]评估灾害性泥石流严重的长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害治理工程效果,为长江上游同类水电站的泥石流防灾减灾与治理效果评估研究提供思路。方法]选择金沙江白鹤滩水电站施工区的矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流治理工程为案例,通过2013—2015年连续3a的现场跟踪调查分析,结合模型计算对矮子沟和大寨沟泥石流峰值流量过程进行计算,分别评估2014和2015年矮子沟、大寨沟泥石流治理工程效果,并进行泥石流危险性评价。结果]基于长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流灾害特点,提出了长江上游梯级电站开发区泥石流治理工程效果评估模式,并提出了基于风险控制的水电工程泥石流"以排为主,适当拦挡"治理模式与减灾策略。结论]矮子沟、大寨沟现有的泥石流防治措施在满库的状态下能够满足500年一遇泥石流过流的要求,泥石流危险性小。

Effectiveness Evaluation of Debris Flow Control and Mitigation Strategies for Cascade Hydropower Stations in Upper Yangtze River,China——A Case Study in Baihetan Hydropower Station of Jinsha River

Objective] The objective of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of debris flow disaster control project in development zone at cascade hydropower stations at severe landslides-affected Upper Yangtze River and provide references on effectiveness post-evaluation of debris flow control for other hydropower stations. Methods] The Aizi and Dazhai gully debris flow regulation engineering in Jinshajiang River were chose as a case. The peak flow process of Aizi and Dazhai gully debris flow were calculated through the tracking investigation of three consecutive years from 2013 to 2015. The effectiveness of debris flow control engineering of Aizi and Dazhai gully in 2014 and 2015 were evaluated. The risk of debris flow was estimated. Results] Post-evaluation model on effectiveness of debris flow control in the cascade hydropower stations of Upper Yangtze River development zone was put forward based on the results of the assessment system. The governance model of debris flow and mitigation strategies were proposed based on the water and electricity engineering debris flow risk control according to the characteristics of debris flow hazards in the development of cascade hydropower stations in the Upper Yangtze River. Conclusion] Existing debris flow prevention and control measures of Aizi and Dazhai gully can meet flow requirements of five hundred-year debris flow under the conditions of impletion, and debris flow risk is less in the area.