丝绸之路东段生态支持能力与社会经济动态耦合

目的]研究丝绸之路东段生态支持能力与社会经济的动态耦合现状,旨在为实现区域经济与环境协调发展,促进社会经济持续健康发展提供理论依据。方法]运用系统论构建丝绸之路东段生态支持能力与社会经济协调耦合模型,提出评判标准和基本类型,并对该区2000—2012年生态支持能力与社会经济协调发展状况进行分析。结果](1)2000—2012年丝绸之路东段生态支持能力以0.02/a的速率减小,社会经济发展水平以0.04/a的速率提高;(2)2000—2012年丝绸之路东段生态支持能力和社会经济发展耦合度虽不断提高,但仍处于低水平协调发展阶段;(3)丝绸之路东段生态支持能力与经济耦合发展总体水平较低,可划分为4类:轻度失调发展生态损益型、轻度失调发展磨合型、低水平协调发展同步型、低水平协调发展经济滞后型。结论]目前该段生态支持能力无法满足高能耗和高污染的传统工业发展模式,当前最要紧的是优化产业结构,促进生态经济协调发展。

Dynamic Coupling of Ecological Supporting Capability and Socioeconomic Development in East Part of Silk Road

Objective] Through studying the current situation of dynamic coupling of ecological supporting capability and socioeconomic development in east part of Silk Road, this paper aimed to offer theoretical reference for coordinated development of regional economy and the environment, and to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the social economy.Methods] Based on system theory, development of ecological supporting capability and social economy during 2000-2012 in the east part of Silk Road was analyzed and a coupling coordinated model was constructed. Upon which, an evaluation criteria and some fundamental types were put forward and the socioeconomic development was presented.Results] (1) The ecological supporting capability decreased with the rate of 0.02/a in 2000-2012, and the socioeconomic development index increased with the rate of 0.04/a; (2) Coupling coordinate index of ecological supporting capability and socioeconomic development in east part of Silk Road increased over the past 13 years, but still at a low level; (3) The overall coupling development level of ecological supporting capability and socioeconomic development was low. There were four types in this region:lightly uncoordinated development of ecological loss type, lightly uncoordinated develop run-type, low-level coordinated development of synchronous type, low-level coordinated development of economy predominating type.Conclusion] The ecological supporting capability has overloaded under the traditional industrial development pattern with high energy consumption and high population. At present, what matters most is to optimize the industrial structure and promote the coordinated development of eco-economy.