基于改进熵权法和云模型的安徽省淮河流域防洪减灾能力评估

目的]科学评估防洪减灾能力,为地区制定出科学有效的防洪减灾政策提供参考。方法]由监测预警能力、防洪除涝能力、抢险救灾能力、灾害管理能力构成防洪减灾能力评估的指标模型,并采用最小相对信息熵原理和秩比法对传统熵权法进行改进,各指标权重由改进的熵权法来计算,然后用改进熵权法以及云模型来建立评估模型,并用来评估安徽省淮河流域的防洪减灾能力。结果]淮河流域内的防洪减灾能力处于中下等水平;空间差异分布比较明显,流域北部相对高于南部,流域东部相对高于西部;市辖区的防洪减灾能力相对较高,县域防洪减灾能力相对较低;其中肥西县和淮北、蚌埠、淮南、滁州市防洪减灾能力处于高水平;长丰、五河、凤台、萧县和天长、阜阳、六安市属于相对较高水平;肥东、濉溪、砀山、泗县和宿州、界首、明光市为中等水平;其余市县则为相对较低水平。结论]通过防洪减灾能力评估结果,可以找出流域内各城市防洪减灾能力的差异及存在的薄弱环节,提高流域内整体防洪减灾能力。

Evaluation of Flood Disaster Prevention and Reduction of Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province Based on Improved Entropy Weight Method and Cloud Model

Objective] To evaluate the capacity in flood disaster prevention and reduction in order to provide effective references for the regional government to make scientific and effective policies in flood disaster prevention and reduction.Methods] The index system for flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity was composed of flood monitoring and warning, flood disaster prevention and waterlogging control, rescuing and rehabilitation as well as disaster management. The traditional entropy weight method was improved based on the minimum relative entropy principle and the rank ration method, and the weight of each index was calculated by the improved entropy method. The improved entropy method and cloud model was used to establish the evaluation model, and the capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of the Huaihe River basin in Anhui Province was then assessed.Results] The flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity was at middle and lower leve land the spatial difference was obvious. Flood disaster prevention capacity in the northern part of the basin was higher than the south, and the eastern part of the basin was higher than the west. The flood disaster and reduction capacity was relatively high in the urban area, and relatively low in the rural area. Feixi County, Huaibei City, Bengbu City, Huainan City, Chuzhou City were at the high level. Changfeng County, Wuhe County, Fengtai County, Xiaoxian County, and Tianchang City, Fuyang City, Luan City was at a relatively high level. Feidong County, Suixi County, Dangshan County, Sixian County, and Suzhou City, Jieshou City, Mingguang City were at a middle level, while the others were at a relatively low and even lower capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction.Conclusion] Based on the evaluation results of flood disaster prevention and reduction capacity, the vulnerable spots in flood disaster prevention and reduction in the area can be identified, and the overall capacity in flood prevention can be improved.