基于灰色关联分析法的白城市洪水资源利用效益分析

目的]对吉林省白城市洪水资源利用效益进行分析,为该地区洪水资源的合理配置提供科学依据。方法]采用灰色关联分析法,对2008—2017年白城市洪水资源利用效益衡量及其所依赖的经济收益、生态环境改善、社会发展等变化,分别从直接经济效益、生态环境效益和间接经济社会效益3个角度中确定指标参数和指标体系进行关联分析。结果]洪水资源利用对各效益指标的影响关联度均在0.55以上,目前洪水资源对生态环境效益影响最为明显,占全部效益的43%。结论]灰色关联分析法为有效利用和管理洪水资源提供了新的思路与评价方法,白城市洪水资源更多以自然形式为环境及生态所利用,所带来的效益更多在生态资源本身,当地洪水资源具有很大的开发潜力。

Benefits Analysis of Flood Resources Utilization in Baicheng City Based on Grey Relational Analysis

Objective] The benefit of flood resources utilization in Baicheng City of Jilin Province was analyzed to provide scientific basis for rational allocation of flood resources in this area.Methods] By means of grey relational analysis method, the evaluation of the utilization efficiency of flood resources in Baicheng City from 2008 to 2017 and the changes of economic benefits, ecological environment improvement and social development on which it depends are correlated. The index parameters and index system are determined from three aspects:direct economic benefits, ecological environment benefits and indirect economic and social benefits.Results] At present, the impact of flood resources on ecological and environmental benefits is the most obvious, accounting for 43% of the total benefits.Conclusion] Grey relational analysis provides a new way of thinking and evaluation for the effective utilization and management of flood resources. The flood resources in Baicheng City are more likely to be used in its natural form by the environment and ecology, and the benefits are more predominant for the ecological resources themselves. The local flood resources have a great development potential.