基于能值-生态足迹修正模型的区域可持续发展研究——以江苏省南通市为例

在系统分析能值—生态足迹模型缺陷的基础上,通过增加人工投入指标,统一能值密度以及引入折能/折标系数对其进行了修正,并采用修正后的模型对江苏省南通市1996—2010年的可持续发展水平进行了测算。结果表明:(1)1996—2010年间南通市人均生态足迹由0.65hm2增长到0.90hm2,主要是由能源消费量的增加引起的;(2)同期南通市人均生态承载力由0.51hm2增长到0.81hm2,这主要是由农、畜产品产量提高和水电开发力度加大引起的,而通过劳务和资金投入提高承载力的空间很大;(3)1996—2010年南通市一直处于生态赤字状态,可持续性评价指数也都在0.5以上,区域发展处于不可持续状态。为进一步缩小生态承载力与生态足迹之间的差距,应采取以下措施:引导重点行业和企业节能降耗,大力发展新能源;加大农业科技投入,继续提高农产品产量;重视人力资源的投入,促使经济发展方式向技术密集型和资本密集型转变。

A Study of Regional Sustainable Development Based on Modified Model of Energetic Ecological Footprint-A Case Study of Nantong City, Jiangsu Province

A traditional model of energetic ecological footprint was modified through adding artificial input indexes, unifying energy density and introducing energy-releasing/standard-coal coefficient, based on the assessment of the traditional model. Then, the sustainable development level of Nantong City, Jiangsu Province from 1996 to 2010 was measured with the modified model. Results show that: (1) The ecological footprint of Nantong City increased from 0.65 to 0.90 hm² per capita from 1996 to 2010, caused by the rapid energy consumption. (2) The ecological carrying capacity of Nantong City increased from 0.51 to 0.81 hm² per capita during the period, supported by the growth of agricultural and hydropower production, with a large potential of labor and capital input. (3) Nantong City has been in a state of ecological dificit, and the sustainability evaluation index was always larger than 0.5 from 1996 to 2010, which means that Nantong City was in an unsustainable state. In order to narrow the gap between ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity, some measures can be put forward: guiding major industries and enterprises to save energy and exploiting new energy actively; increasing the investment in agricultural technology to improve agricultural production; and paying attention to investment in human resources and promoting technology and capital intensified economy.