快速城镇化地区土地利用演变及驱动机制——以巢湖流域为例

目的]探究巢湖流域土地利用演变特征规律及驱动机制,为实现区域土地资源的优化配置和社会经济的可持续发展提供理论依据。方法]收集巢湖流域及区县1996—2014年土地利用变更调查及社会经济统计年鉴,运用土地利用数量、程度及空间差异计量模型,以及主成分分析法,采用数据统计软件,模拟巢湖流域土地利用变化演化规律及其驱动因素。结果]近20a来巢湖流域各土地利用类型均发生变化,但不同土地利用类型变化的总量、变化幅度和变化速度却存在明显差异,耕地、园地、草地减少较为突出,林地略有增加,其他农用地减少将近1/2;建设用地总量增长幅度更大,特别是城镇工矿用地及交通基础设施用地增长迅猛,农村居民点用地略有减少;巢湖全域土地利用程度自2004年之后呈现逐年上升趋势,合肥市辖区及周边县域土地利用开发程度较高,其他区域相对较低;耕地减少率金安区、瑶海区、肥西县、含山县居前,城镇用地增加率肥西县、长丰县、巢湖市位于前列;投资拉动、经济发展、工业推进、人口增加及城镇化是巢湖流域特别是近10a多土地利用变化的主要驱动因素。结论]巢湖流域加快建设长三角世界级城市群副中心城市及生态文明先行示范区,需进一步优化土地利用空间格局,盘活建设用地存量,提高建设用地效率,走资源节约型与环境友好型的土地利用模式。

Land Use Change and Driving Mechanism in Rapid Urbanization Region-A Case Study at Chaohu River Basin

Objective] The characteristics and driving mechanism of land use change in Chaohu basin were explored to realize optimal allocation of land resources and to promote sustainable development of social economy. Methods] According to land use investigation and economic & social statistical yearbook in Chaohu River basin during 1996-2014, indices of land use quantity and intensity were used in spatial differences measurement model, and in principal component analysis to simulate the land use change in Chaohu River basin and its driving factors. Results] Over the past 20 years, all types of land use had been changed in Chaohu basin, the amount, range and rate were different. Among which, cultivated land, vegetable land and grassland decreased remakbly, woodland increased slightly, half of the miscellaneous agricultural lands were changed into other types of lands that was mostly used as contstruction land. Especially, urban industrial infrastructure and traffic land increased rapidly; Rural residential land decreased slightly. Since 2004, land use intensity had increased year by year, high utilization intensity centralized around Hefei City and the surrounding regions was relatively low. In terms of the decreasing rate of cultivated land, districts of Jin''an and Yaohai, counties of Feixi, Hanshan had comparatively great values; The increase rates of urban land in counties of Feixi and Changfeng were relatively great. In the last 10 years, investment, economic development, industrial advancement, population growth and urbanization were the main driving factors of land use change in Chaohu River basin. Conclusion] To accelerate the construction of the subcenteral group cities around the world-class city in Yangtze River delta and to set up an ecocivilized demonstration area, we need tooptimize land use spatial pattern, to release stocked land for construction, to improve the use efficiency of construction land. For all of these, land use pattern having resource-saving and environment friendly traits was prefered.