基于改进三维生态足迹模型的张家口市生态可持续性评价

目的]定量分析张家口市2003—2013年的生态可持续发展状态,并对未来生态可持续发展趋势进行预测,以期为张家口市生态系统结构优化及生态建设和管理提供决策依据。方法]应用改进三维生态足迹模型,核算张家口市各土地利用类型的三维生态足迹,并运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测其未来生态可持续变化趋势。结果]2003—2013年张家口市人均生物承载力整体不断减少,人均生态足迹、人均生态赤字、人均生态足迹深度与人均生态足迹广度均呈整体增加趋势;化石燃料土地、建筑用地、水域、耕地、草地与林地的人均生态足迹均呈增加趋势;除草地和林地外,其他生物生产性土地人均生物承载力不断减少;建筑用地、耕地与林地表现为生态盈余,人均生态足迹深度处于自然原长;化石燃料土地、草地与水域呈生态赤字状态,草地与水域人均生态足迹深度不断增加;2014—2020年人均生态足迹将逐年增加,人均生物承载力将逐年减少,张家口市生态发展处于不可持续状态。结论]未来应采取开发新型能源,发展生态农业、旅游业,增加生态用地面积等措施来缓解生态环境压力,提高区域可持续发展能力。

Evaluation of Ecological Sustainability Based on Revised Three-dimensional Model of Ecological Footprint in Zhangjiakou City

Objective] Taking Zhangjiakou City as a case, the purpose of this study was to analyze quantitatively the ecological sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City in 2003-2013, and to predict the trend for decision basis of ecological system structure optimization and ecological construction and management.Methods] Revised three-dimensional model of ecological footprint was adopted to calculate its dynamic changes of consumption and supply of all land types from 2003 to 2013. And GM(1,1) gray predictive dynamic model was constructed to predict the trend of ecological sustainable development in the next seven years.Results] From 2003 to 2013, biocapacity per capita in Zhangjiakou City decreased from 1.460 7 hm² to 1.321 0 hm²; ecological footprint per capita increased from 2.271 6 hm² to 5.490 0 hm²; ecological deficit per capita increased from 1.845 9 hm² to 4.671 9 hm²; ecological footprint depth per capita increased from 5.336 2 hm² to 7.254 4 hm², and ecological footprint size per capita increased from 0.425 7 hm² to 0.747 0 hm².Meanwhile, ecological footprint per capita of fossil fuel land, construction land, water area, arable land, grassland and forest land showed a trend of increase. Expect for grassland and forest land, ecological carrying capacity per capita of other ecological productive lands were decreasing. Construction land, arable land and forest land presented a state of ecological surplus, and their ecological footprint depth per capita were in natural growth stage. However, fossil fuel land, water area and grassland were in the condition of ecological deficit, ecological footprint depth per capita of water area and grassland present an increasing trend. In the period of 2014-2020, ecological footprint per capita were predicted in a rise trend; whereas, ecological carrying capacity per capita would decline year after year.Conclusion] Therefore, in order to realize the sustainable development of local economy, society and ecological environment, some major counter measures of reducing ecological deficit and alleviating the pressure of ecological environment should be adopt positively, such as promoting the use of clean energy, controlling the population quantity, increasing the ecological land area, etc.