基于多层次模糊综合评价模型的沙漠绿洲水资源承载力评价与预测

目的]对腰坝绿洲未来水资源承载力进行评价和预测研究,为该地区水资源的可持续利用及合理管理政策的制定提供决策依据。方法]取2016年为现状水平年,2020,2025,2030年为规划水平年,根据绿洲发展历史和现状及相关规划,对社会经济发展进行预测,进而对各水平年的需水进行预测。选取9个评价指标构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,建立水资源承载力模糊综合评价模型,对各水平年水资源承载力进行评价分析。结果]水资源承载力综合评判值2016年仅为0.251 2,表明水资源承载力已达到饱和;至2030年,上升至0.434 4,水资源承载力处于较高的可承载水平,但区内地下水资源开发潜力仍然有限。结论]现状年水资源承载力处于超载状态,水资源供需矛盾突出,社会经济子系统是水资源承载力提高的主要压力源,通过采取一系列的措施,未来水资源承载力状况将逐渐好转,需采取全面有效的措施使水资源承载力提升至较高水平,将研究区打造成为和谐高效的绿洲。

Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Desert Oasis Areas Based on Multilevel Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

Objective] To provide reference for management decision of sustainable utilization of water resources, an evaluation and prediction research with respect to the carrying capacity of typical Yaoba oasis water resources was conducted.Methods] We took 2016 as the actuality year and 2020, 2025, 2030 as planning level year. According to the oasis development history, current situation and related planning, we forecasted the water demand of each level year. Nine evaluation indexes were selected to construct evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity, and to establish a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of the water resources carrying capacity and made an analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of each level year.Results] The fuzzy synthetic evaluation value of 2016 was only 0.251 2, which showed the carrying capacity of water resources had reached saturation; in 2030, it will reach on 0.434 4, which is a higher bearing level. However, the development potential of groundwater resources in Yaoba oasis is still limited.Conclusion] The evaluation result showed that actuality year of water resources carrying capacity was in overload condition and the contradiction of supply and demand of water resources was obvious. The social economy system was the main stress-source of the improvement of water resource carrying capacity. Through taking a series of measures, the future situation of water resources carrying capacity will gradually improve. It need to take comprehensive measures to raise water resources carrying capacity to a higher level, and to build the study area into a harmonious and efficient oasis.