基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的安徽省土地承载力评价及预测

目的]定量评价和预测土地承载力状况并诊断其障碍因子,为提高安徽省土地承载力提供科学依据,也为区域土地承载力评价研究提供新思路。方法]基于DPSIR模型构建了安徽省土地承载力评价指标体系,运用TOPSIS方法与障碍度模型评价和诊断了2006—2015年安徽省土地承载力状况和关键障碍因素。基于评价结果,运用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5a安徽省土地承载力变化趋势。结果]2006—2015年安徽省土地承载力经历了先下降后上升的变化历程;驱动力、压力、状态子系统承载力均呈先下降后上升的变化态势,影响和响应子系统承载力呈显著波动变化态势;未来5a,压力和状态子系统承载力逐年递减,承载力水平堪忧,需重点关注;研究期内工业废水排放量始终是制约安徽省土地承载力水平提高的首要因素,环境保护投资占GDP比重、工业固体废弃物产生量等是重要制约因素。结论]虽然安徽省土地承载力水平总体呈上升趋势,但受压力和状态子系统承载力水平低的限制,安徽省土地承载力仍处中级水平。

Evaluation and Prediction of Land Carrying Capacity in Anhui Province Based on DPSIR-TOPSIS Model

Objective] Quantitative evaluation and prediction of land carrying capacity and diagnosis of its obstacle factors were carried out to provide a scientific basis for improving the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province, and also to provide new ideas for the evaluation of regional land carrying capacity.Methods] Based on the DPSIR model, the evaluation index system of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province was constructed. The TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model were used respectively to evaluate the land carrying capacity and diagnose the key obstacle factors in Anhui Province in the past 2006-2015 years. The GM(1,1) model was used to predict the change trend of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province in the next 5 years.Results] The results showed that the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province had gone through the change course of first descending and then rising in the past 2006-2015 years which was the same as the pressure and state subsystem, and the influence and response subsystem showed a significant fluctuation trend. In the next 5 years, the carrying capacity of the pressure and the state subsystem will experience decreasing year by year, which will result to a low level of carrying capacity which is needed to be paid attention to. During the study period, the amount of industrial wastewater discharge was always the primary factor that restricted the increase of land carrying capacity in Anhui Province. The proportion of environmental protection investment to GDP and the output of industrial solid waste were two important constraints.Conclusion] Although the level of land carrying capacity of Anhui Province is on the rise generally, limited by the low level of carrying capacity of pressure and state subsystem, the land carrying capacity of Anhui Province is still at an intermediate level.