| 陕西果业基地苹果花期冻害指数及预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 柴芊,栗珂,刘璐.陕西果业基地苹果花期冻害指数及预报方法[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(4):621-626. |
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| 作者姓名： | 柴芊 栗珂 刘璐 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州723000 [2]陕西省经济作物气象服务台,西安710015 |
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| 基金项目： | 2010年中国气象局业务建设项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了提高陕西果业防灾减灾能力,实现果业基地苹果花期冻害分区定量预报,根据果业基地县的生态环境、气候特点和果业生产水平,选择具有代表性的7个气象台站,利用近40a(1970-2009年)的气温和苹果部分物候监测资料,得到物理意义明确的苹果花期冻害指数计算模型。将花期冻害指数分为强、偏强、中等、偏弱和弱5个等级,依各果区花期冻害指数序列,用典型K阶自回归AR(K)预测模式进行独立样本预测试验,结果表明:预报准确或基本准确率为66.7%,该预报模式经2010年实际使用,预报效果尚好,具有实用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 花期冻害指数 自回归模式 预测 |
Index of Frost Damage for Apple Blossom and Its Forecast Method in Shaanxi Fruit Base |
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| CHAI Qian,LI Ke,LIU Lu.Index of Frost Damage for Apple Blossom and Its Forecast Method in Shaanxi Fruit Base[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(4):621-626. |
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| Authors: | CHAI Qian LI Ke LIU Lu |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 723000, China; 2. Shaanxi Meteorological Serving Station for Economical Crop, Xi＇an 710015) |
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| Abstract: | In order to improve capability of disaster prevention and mitigation of Shaanxi fruits industry, and take quantified frost damage forecast during apple blossom, the frost damage index model during apple blossom was established, based on apple phenological data and meteorological data in last 40 years from 7 representative meteorological stations. According to the model, the frost damage index was divided into five grades from strong to weak. Through testing with the Kth-order auto-regression, the predicting accuracy rate was 66.7% , which played a great role in frost damage forecasting during apple blossom. |
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| Keywords: | Frost damage index during blossom Auto-regressive Forecast |
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