| 陇南春旱指数与冬小麦产量关系及预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 肖志强,尚学军,樊明,沈冬梅.陇南春旱指数与冬小麦产量关系及预测研究[J].中国农业气象,2002,23(1):9-11. |
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| 作者姓名： | 肖志强 尚学军 樊明 沈冬梅 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省陇南地区气象局,武都,746000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”重中之重项目“我国短期气候预测系统研究”资助，课题编号 :96 - 90 8- 0 5 - 0 3 |
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| 摘 要： | 干旱是影响陇南冬小麦产量最主要的灾害性因素。从冬小麦生长关键时段所对应的农业气象条件入手，制定出陇南春旱指数，并分析其年际变化及对冬小麦产量影响的规律，最后由均生函数预测模型预测春旱指数，相应预测出冬小麦的产量，经1999、2000年两年试报，趋势准确。
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| 关 键 词： | 春旱指数 冬小麦 产量 预测 等级指标 年际变化 均生函数预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-6362(2002)01-0009-03 |
A Study on The Relationship between the Index of Spring Drought and Winter Wheat Output in South Gansu and its Prediction |
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| XIAO Zhi-qiang,SHANG Xue-jun,FAN Ming,SHEN Dong-mei.A Study on The Relationship between the Index of Spring Drought and Winter Wheat Output in South Gansu and its Prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2002,23(1):9-11. |
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| Authors: | XIAO Zhi-qiang SHANG Xue-jun FAN Ming SHEN Dong-mei |
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| Abstract: | Drought is the main disastrous element influencing winter wheat output in South Gansu.Based on agricultural meteorological factors during the critical period of winter wheat growth,the index of spring drought was adopted.After analyzing annual change of the index and its effect on winter wheat output,according to the prediction model of the mean generating function,the index and the winter wheat output have been predicted.The result of prediction is accurate after tests from 1999 to 2000. |
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| Keywords: | Index of spring drought Winter wheat Output prediction |
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