福建省冬季果树冻（寒）害低温预报预警

通过普查分析1963-2004年福建冬季（11月-次年2月）气候资料得出：造成福建省冬季低温天气过程的冷空气路径有57.1%为西路冷空气（即冷空气经新疆于青藏高原东侧河套以西南下）影响,地面高压中心强度、路径、Φ568（500hPa 568线与120°E经线交点的纬度）和Φ850（850hPa 0℃与120°E经线交点的纬度）与最低温度关系密切。通过对历史资料分析,利用逐步回归分析方法分别建立了福州、厦门和邵武三个探空站最低气温td的短期预报方程,再利用各地当晚20时的云量、风速、湿度（N20、F20、U20）值估算当晚的降温幅度（Δt）、进一步对最低气温td进行短时临近预报,然后结合各地果树主栽品种及其抗低温冻害指标、及时发布低温冻害预警预告,构成了福建省冬季果树冻（寒）害低温预报预警模式。研究结果对福建各地减轻或避免强低温对果树造成的灾害、提高水果的产量和质量具有重要意义。

Prediction and Early Warning of Fruit Tree Freezing Damage in Winter due to Low Temperature in Fujian Province

Based on the meteorological data from 1963 to 2004 in Fujian Province, the circulation system of the low temperature weather in winter （ November to February next year） was analyzed. The results showed that the 57. 1% of the low temperature weather in winter was from west way. The intensity and way of the cold high atmospheric pressure center, Ф568 （ the latitude at the nodical point of the 5680 geopotential meter line with the 120°E line in the 500hPa high altitude） and q~850 （ the latitude at the nodical point of the 0℃ temperature line with the 120°E line in the 850hPa high altitude ） were closely related to the minimum temperature. The equation of short-term forecast of low temperature weather for Fuzhou,Xiamen and Shaowu was established by stepwise regression analysis. The detemperature rate was estimated by cloud cover, wind velocity. humidity （ N20, F20, U20 ） at 20：00 o＇ clock. The index of freezing damage of different fruit tree varieties was determined and integrated to the early warning systems.