主要气象灾害对福建粮食生产影响的灰色关联分析

利用1980-2004年福建省气象灾害统计资料,采用灰色关联分析方法分析了4种气象灾害包括旱灾、水灾、风雹灾和低温冻害对福建粮食生产的危害性。结果表明,影响福建早稻生产的主要气象灾害是风雹灾,影响晚稻、单季稻和甘薯的主要气象灾害为旱灾。通过对1995年前后福建粮食总产与4种灾害受灾面积关联分析发现,总体上看,旱灾和寒害一直是影响福建粮食生产的主要气象因子,1995年以后,旱灾和水灾的影响有所增加。

Grey Correlation Analysis of Main Meteorological Disasters Affecting Grain Production in Fujian Province

Based on the statistical data of meteorological disasters from 1980 to 2004 in Fujian Province, the main meteorological disasters including drought, flood, typhoon and hailstones, and low temperature freeze were analyzed by using the grey correlation analysis. The results showed that the main meteorological disaster affecting the yield of early rice were typhoon and hailstones, while drought was the main disaster for late rice, single season rice and sweet potato. The drought and low temperature freeze were the main meteorological disasters for the grain production in Fujian Province. However, the impact of drought and flood had been increased since 1995.