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气候变暖背景下江苏省水稻热害发生规律及其对产量的影响
引用本文:包云轩,刘维,高苹,申双和.气候变暖背景下江苏省水稻热害发生规律及其对产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(2):289-296.
作者姓名:包云轩  刘维  高苹  申双和
作者单位:1. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京,210044
2. 江苏省气象局,南京,210008
基金项目:江苏省科技支撑计划(BE2009680);江苏高校优势学科建设工程
摘    要:根据江苏省1960-2009年常规气象资料和1980-2009年水稻生育期观测数据,利用温度距平、气候倾向率和M-K检验法研究江苏省不同区域的气候变暖特征,并分析江苏省水稻热害的时空分布规律及其对产量的影响,探讨气候变暖对江苏省水稻热害发生的影响。结果表明:(1)江苏省水稻热害主要发生在拔节-孕穗期和抽穗-乳熟期,苏南地区发生频次最高,淮北和苏北沿海最少。(2)江苏省水稻热害发生频次有明显的13a和3a周期,前者为主周期,后者为副周期。(3)1960-2009年,江苏省平均气温倾向率为0.2775℃.10a-1(P<0.01),气候变暖明显;20世纪60年代气温开始下降,80年代达最低值,之后开始变暖,21世纪前10a达最高值;江苏省水稻热害发生趋势与气温变化基本一致,80年代发生次数最少,21世纪前10a发生次数最多。(4)7-8月平均气温高的年代,热害发生次数则多,淮北地区20世纪60年代气温最高,热害发生次数也最多,其它地区近10a气温最高,热害次数最多。(5)从年际变化看,气候偏暖的年份,水稻热害多,产量相应低,说明气候变暖是造成水稻热害频次上升、产量下降的重要原因。

关 键 词:江苏省  水稻生育期  热害  气候变暖  水稻产量

Study on Characteristics of Rice Heat Damages in Jiangsu Province under the Background of Climate Warming and Its Influence on the Rice Yield
BAO Yun-xuan , LIU Wei , GAO Ping , SHEN Shuang-he.Study on Characteristics of Rice Heat Damages in Jiangsu Province under the Background of Climate Warming and Its Influence on the Rice Yield[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(2):289-296.
Authors:BAO Yun-xuan  LIU Wei  GAO Ping  SHEN Shuang-he
Institution:1. Jiangsu Key Lab of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 ,China; 2. Meteorological Bureau of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210008)
Abstract:Based on the observed data of conventional meteorological stations in Jiangsu province from 1960 to 2009 and the investigated data of the rice growth periods from 1980 to 2009, in this paper, the different growth periods of rice was calculated and determined statistically, the appropriate indicators of rice heat damage was selected, the tem- perature anomaly, the variability of its climatic trend and M-K test were used to reflect the characteristics of climate warming in the different regions of Jiangsu province. The spatial-temporal distribution pattern of the rice heat damages in these regions was analyzed and the influence of the climate warming on it was discussed. The results showed as fol- lows : ( 1 ) the heat damages of rice in Jiangsu province concentrated in the two growth periods from jointing to booting and heading to initial ripping. The occurrence frequency of rice heat damage in the south part of Jiangsu province was highest, it situated at the second place in the the region between the Yantze river and Huaihe river and the northern side of the Huaihe river and the coastal region of the province were the distribution regions of the low frequencies. (2) There were the obvious cycles of 13 years and 3 years in the occurrence frequencies of rice heat damages of Jiangsu province. The former was the main cycle and the later was the secondary cycle. (3) The annual averaze climatic trend variability of air temperature in Jiangsu province attained 0. 2775~C ~ 10y-l from 1960 to 2009 (P 〈 O. 01 )and it was obvious for climate warming. As the annual average temperature of all regions decreased from 1960s and attained the lowest values in 1980s, it increased later and attained the highest values in the beginning ten years of 21st century. Respectively, the occurrence tendencies of the rice heat damages in the different regions were consistent to the evolu- tion of the temperature. The occurrence frequency of the heat damage was the least in 1980s and the largest in the be- ginning ten years of 21st century. (4) The higher the mean temperature of July and August was, the more the occur- rence frequency of rice heat damage was. For the north side of the Huaihe river, the mean temperature of July and Au- gust was highest in 1960s and the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage was most in this decade. But in the other regions of the province, the mean temperature of July and August was highest in 2000s and the occurrence frequency of rice heat rice heat damage damages was most in this decade. (5) In view of the inter-annual change, the occurrence frequencies of the were higher in the warmer climate years and the yields of rice were lower. It demonstrated that the climate warming was one of the important factors caused the increasing of the occurrence frequency of rice heat damage and the reducing of rice yields in Jiangsu province.
Keywords:Jiangsu province  Growth period of rice  Heat damage  Climate warming  Rice yield
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