吉林省春旱风险评估及区划

利用吉林省各站1951-2005年实测气象资料，通过计算变异系数、正态分布风险概率、风险指数对吉林省春旱的风险性进行了讨论和评估。结果表明，吉林省中西部大部分地区遭受春旱的风险性较大，出现偏旱的概率一般在60%以上，发生重旱的概率在20%-60%；综合风险区划结果显示西部白城市大部为春旱高风险区，西部松原市和中部大部为春旱较高风险区，因此，在农业生产中，中西部地区应充分考虑春旱风险，以减轻损失。

Risk Evaluation and Division of Spring Drought in Jilin Province

Based on the meteorological data of all stations in Jilin Province during the period of 1951 -2005, the risk of the spring drought in Jilin Province were discussed and evaluated by using the variation coefficient, risk probability of normal distribution and risk index. The results showed that the risk of the spring drought was higher in the most parts of the middle and western Jilin Province, where the probability of drought was with over 60% and the probability of serious drought 20 - 60%. The results of the comprehensive risk division showed that Baicheng City in the western Jilin Province was the area with the high spring drought risk, while Songyuan City and the most parts of the middle Jilin Province were the areas with relative high spring drought risk. The risk of the spring drought should be fully considered in the agricultural production in the middle and western parts of Jilin Province, to reduce the yield losses.