稻纵卷叶螟发生的气象条件等级预报

通过对桂林地区近5a水稻稻纵卷叶螟发生资料与气象资料进行对比分析,选择影响桂林地区稻纵卷叶螟发生的气象因子(温度、降水、风向、风速、湿度),考虑前期气象条件和虫源数,采用回归分析方法,建立水稻稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的气象条件等级预报模型。模型中的预报对象为气象条件综合等级,分长期和短期预报,将各预报对象和预报因子划分为5级,用当地气象台发布的月、季度及一周天气预报结论,综合分析前期虫源数是否有利,对未来月、季和1~7d逐日影响稻纵卷叶螟迁飞的气象条件等级进行预报。预报业务系统实用性强,逐日预报准确率达到了70%以上,在生产实践中发挥了积极的作用。

Meteorological Condition Grades Forecast for Occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene

By comparing the occurrence data of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene and meteorological data in past five years in Guilin region,the meteorological factors of affecting the occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene were selected.According to the factors,the meteorological condition grades forecast model for occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene was established by using regression analysis method.The model was used to predict the meteorological condition integrity grades,which included long-term forecast and short-term forecast.Also considering the weather forecast results,the model could predict whether the future meteorological condition was suitable to occurrence of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guene,in quarter a year,one month,even one week.The forecast accuracy rate was more than 70%,which played a great role in agricultural activities.