基于产量阶段的河南省夏玉米灰色——马尔柯夫预测模型

针对较长产量序列纵向及横向可比性较差的问题 ,提出用划分产量阶段的方法进行分段处理。用 GM(1,1)灰色模型分段模拟预测河南省夏玉米单产 ,根据相对气象产量划分产量状态 ,再用马尔柯夫模型转移概率预测系统未来发展方向并修正前者的预报结果。通过模拟和预报 ,准确率都有所提高

The Grey-Markov Forecasting Model for Maize in Henan Province Based on the Periods of Yield

The grey-Markov forecasting model is suitable for the succession with large variations. In this paper, the concept of the periods of yield is put forward. The GM(1,1) grey model is applied to forecast the yield of maize in Henan Province. The transition possibility of Markov model is used for predicting the development direction of the system in the future and amending the GM(1,1) forecasted yield. The accuracy is improved by the simulation and forecasting.