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安徽省洪涝灾害风险区划及成灾面积变化趋势分析
引用本文:郭永芳,查良松.安徽省洪涝灾害风险区划及成灾面积变化趋势分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):130-136.
作者姓名:郭永芳  查良松
作者单位:安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖,241003
摘    要:从成因分析角度选取洪涝灾害风险评估因子,用基于熵权的层次分析法赋予各因子相应的权重,建立洪涝灾害风险度评价模型,以县域为单位对安徽省进行洪涝灾害风险区划。利用安徽境内78个县(市)1998-2007年洪涝成灾面积资料,分析了全省和各风险区洪涝成灾面积的变化规律;利用R/S分析方法计算其相应的Hurst指数,预测未来的可能演变趋势。结果表明:安徽省洪涝灾害风险度较高的县(市)分布于淮北平原、江淮丘陵西部和沿江西部平原,风险度较低的县(市)位于皖南山区和皖西大别山区。1998-2007年,洪涝灾害高风险区、次高风险区和全省的洪涝成灾面积均呈增加趋势,而中风险区、次低风险区及低风险区均呈减少趋势;但R/S分析所得Hurst指数均属于(0,0.5),说明此种趋势不可延续,未来情况可能会向相反方向变化。

关 键 词:安徽  洪涝灾害  风险度  变化趋势  R/S分析

Risk Regionalization of Flood and Waterlogging Disaster and Analysis of Variation Tendency of Damaged Area in Anhui Province
GUO Yong-fang,ZHA Liang-song.Risk Regionalization of Flood and Waterlogging Disaster and Analysis of Variation Tendency of Damaged Area in Anhui Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2010,31(1):130-136.
Authors:GUO Yong-fang  ZHA Liang-song
Institution:GUO Yong-fang,ZHA Liang-song(College of Territorial Resources , Tourism,Auhui Normal University,Wuhu 241003,China)
Abstract:Based on analysis of dominant factors leading to flood and waterlogging disaster,indexes for flood and waterlogging risk assessment were selected and their weights were determined by means of AHP method on the weight of entropy.The flood and waterlogging risk evaluating model was established and country-level based risk regionalization of flood and waterlogging in Anhui Province was carried out.The interannual-scale variation tendencies of damaged area of Anhui province and every sub-region were predicted b...
Keywords:Anhui  Flood-waterlogging disaster  Risk degree  Variation tendency  R/S analysis
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