江西气温稳定通过10℃初日变化及其对双季早稻物候期的影响

利用江西82个气象站1959-2009年日平均气温和14个农业气象观测站1981-2008年的双季早稻物候期资料,分析了气温稳定通过10℃初日的变化及其对双季早稻物候期的影响。结果表明,10℃初日在51a间年际变化十分明显,极差达36d;年代际变化在20世纪80、90年代最为剧烈,2000-2009年次之,60、70年代较为稳定;整个分析期内线性变化趋势不明显,但1991-2009年呈明显提前的趋势。51a间全省10℃初日的区域分布变化明显,3月20日、3月10日分界线从20世纪60-90年代逐步南压,2000年以来大幅度北收;赣南变化幅度大于赣北赣中。10℃初日与双季早稻营养生长期物候期呈正相关,与生殖生长期物候期相关性不明显。典型早年与典型迟年比,双季早稻营养生长期的物候期普遍提前,全省平均提前3.7~9.1d;而在生殖生长期,部分站的物候期转为推迟,总体上早迟年物候期差异在±4d以内;全生育期平均延长3.0d。研究结果可为当地水稻生产布局调整和农事安排提供参考。

Daily Variation of Beginning Date of 10℃ and Its Impacts on Phenological Period of Double-season Early Rice in Jiangxi

Based on the daily mean air temperature during the period of 1959-2009 from 82 weather stations and growth period of double-season early rice during the period of 1981-2008 from 14 agrometeorological stations in Jiangxi,the variation of beginning date of 10℃ and its impacts on growth period of double-season early rice was analyzed.The results showed that the beginning date of 10℃ changed obviously during the 51 years and the maximum change range reached 36 days.The decadal variation range was largest in 1980s and 1990s,which was second during 2000-2009,and relatively stable in 1960s and 1970s.The liner trend of the date was not significant in the whole 51 years,while it advanced significantly from 1991 to 2009.The 10℃beginning date＇s area distribution in the whole province changed significantly in the 51 years,the diving line of March 20th and March 10th expanded southward step by step from 1960s to 1990s,which shrunk northward by a large amplitude during 2000-2009.The change range in Southern Jiangxi was larger than in Northern Jiangxi and Middle Jiangxi.The beginning date of 10℃ positively correlated with the phonological periods of double-season early rice in vegetative growth stage,which were uncorrelated in reproductive growth stage.Compared typical early years of the date with typical late years,the rice＇s growth phases obviously advanced by average 3.7-9.1 days in vegetative growth stage,which turned to delay in some stations in reproductive growth stage,and the difference between them was bellow 4 days in most stations.The whole growth stage was 3 days longer.The study results could support local agriculture production.