基于云模型的黄河故道砀山酥梨气候适宜性分析

选取黄河故道砀山酥梨代表性产地砀山县为样点,利用梨树物候期长期定位观测资料和气象监测数据,基于云模型理论建立了光、温、水气候适宜度。采用加权综合法和几何平均法,确定不同物候期和年际气候适宜度。结果表明,日照适宜度可由左半云,气温与降水适宜度可由梯形云来刻画。综合气候适宜度与梨果实际单产、气候产量和单株产量的相关系数分别为0.4452(P0.05)、0.3734和0.5620(P0.01)。1961-2015年,砀山酥梨气候适宜度变化趋势不明显,但1961-1989年和1990-2010年分别为气候适宜度偏高与偏低时段,1987年为气候适宜度累计距平最大年份。研究期间,气温适宜度呈极显著增加趋势,每10a约增加0.0274。日照与降水适宜度无明显变化趋势,降水适宜度平均值比日照和气温适宜度低,且变异系数是日照和气温适宜度变异系数的4倍。各物候期气候适宜度未呈现趋势性变化,但萌芽期和花期的气候适宜度偏低,在0.50~0.53,且变异系数较大,在45.0~57.0。其它物候期气候适宜度和变异系数相对偏小。在气候变化背景下,气温升高对梨果生长有利,砀山酥梨生产中应加强萌芽-花期的管理,以增强梨树的气候适宜性。

Climatic Suitability Assessment of Dangshansu Pear in the Area along the Abandoned Channel of the Yellow River Based on Cloud Model

The impact of climate conditions on the growth and development of Dangshansu pear is evaluated. It is great significance in coping with climate change, regional climate resources development and utilization. In this paper, the representative origin named Dangshan County of Dangshansu pear in the area along the abandoned channel of the Yellow River is selected as the sampling point. Based on the cloud model theory, the climatic suitability of light, temperature and water were established by using long-term observation data and meteorological monitoring data in the phenophase of Dangshansu pear. The climatic suitability of different phenological periods and interannual ages were determined by weighted combination method and geometric mean method. The results showed that the sunshine suitability could be described by the left half cloud model and the temperature and precipitation suitability could be described by trapezoidal cloud. The correlation coefficients of integrated climatic suitability with actual yield, climate yield and yield per plant were 0.4452 (P<0.05), 0.3734 and 0.5620 (P<0.01), respectively. From 1961 to 2015, the variation trend of climate suitability of Dangshansu pear is not obvious, but in 1961-1989 and 1990-2010, it is the higher and lower period of climate suitability respectively. In 1987, the accumulated anomaly of climate suitability is the largest. During the study period, the temperature suitability increased remarkably, increasing by 0.0274·10y-1. The suitability of sunshine and precipitation has no obvious variation trend. The average of precipitation suitability is lower than that of sunshine and temperature, and the coefficient of variation is four times of that of sunshine and temperature suitability. The climatic suitability of each phenological period did not show a trend change, but the climatic suitability of sprouting stage and flowering stage was low (between 0.50 and 0.53), and the coefficient of variation was large (between 45.0 and 57.0).The climatic suitability and coefficient of variation of other phenological periods were relatively small. In the background of climate change, the increase of temperature is beneficial to the growth of pear. The management of germination and flowering period should be strengthened in the production of Dangshansu pear to enhance the climate suitability of pear trees.