奇异交叉谱分析方法在中国南方稻纵卷叶螟发生预测中的应用

利用奇异交叉谱分析方法(SCSA),对中国南方水稻主产区中广西全州、重庆秀山、湖南湘阴和江苏张家港4个代表站点1994-2014年稻纵卷叶螟田间逐日赶蛾量资料和与4站虫量相关性最显著的环流因子进行耦合周期分析,通过重建耦合分量序列(RCCS)对分量序列的时间变化特征进行探讨,并采用SCSA-AR方法对稻纵卷叶螟发生量进行外推预测。结果表明:预测结果与实际情况基本吻合。对预测平均误差(ME)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)及预测值与实况值的符号相关率(RSC)进行计算,4站综合平均的ME为-0.071、MAE为0.349、RMSE为0.446、RSC为0.75,表明预测误差较小,预测序列较稳定,预报精度较高,可将此方法推广应用于中国南方稻区稻纵卷叶螟的发生趋势预测。

Application of Singular Cross-Spectrum Analysis in the Prediction ofCnaphalocrocis medinalis' Occurrence in Southern China

In this paper, the daily moth catches data ofCnaphalocrocis medialis(Guenee)in the paddy field at the four representative plant protection stations of southern China during the period from 1994 to 2014 was collected. The four representative stations are Quanzhou in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Xiushan in Chongqing City, Xiangyin in Hunan Province and Zhangjiagang in Jiangsu Province and they represented the rice-growing region of the south China, the rice-growing region of the southwestern China, the rice-growing region between the Nanling Mountains and the Yantze River Valley and the rice-growing region between the Yantze River Valley and the Huaihe River Valley in China respectively. The most significant atmospheric circulation factors related to theC. Medinalis' moth catches of the four stations in the early or same periods were screened out. Based on the above works, a method of singular cross-spectrum analysis (SCSA) was used to the analysis of the coupling cycles between the moth catches ofC. Medinalis of the four stations and the selected circulation factors and the time-varying characteristics of the component sequences was discussed by the reconstruction of coupled component sequence(RCCS). Consequently, the singular cross-spectrum analysis combined with the autoregressive function was used to the extrapolating prediction ofC. Medinalis' occurrence amount. The results were showed that the predicted results were in good agreement with the actual occurred situations. The mean correlation error (ME), average absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and the rate of sign correlation between the predicted values and the actual moth catches amount were found that the ME was-0.071, MAE was 0.349, RMSE was 0.446 and RS was 0.75. They indicated that the prediction error was small, the prediction sequence was stable and the prediction accuracy was high. This method can be applied to the prediction of the occurrence trend ofC. Medinalis in southern China.