气候变暖对内蒙古三种主要粮食作物单产影响的初步分析

在采集、整理和分析了内蒙古10个产粮盟（市）3种主要粮食作物即小麦（1961-2008年）、玉米和马铃薯（1979-2008年）的单产数据和农区58个气象站的气温及降水量资料（1961-2008年）的基础上,归纳了内蒙古农区作物生长期的气候特征,计算了干燥度指数;利用统计回归模型分析了干旱对单产的影响并计算了影响系数,预估了未来不同增温幅度和降水量配置的温湿条件下粮食作物气象单产的变化,提出了当地应对气候变化、保证粮食产量的建议。结果显示：农区作物生长期的气温在近48a间呈上升趋势,2001-2008年10个盟（市）平均温度比气候均值（1971-2000年平均值）增加了0.9℃,同期降水量比气候均值减少了48.9mm;农区3种作物生长期的干燥度指数逐年代上升,特别是近8a（2001-2008年）小麦、玉米、马铃薯生长期干燥度指数比20世纪60年代分别上升了1.291、.82和1.49,说明近8a的干旱比60年代严重;干旱对气象单产的影响系数表明,内蒙古农区作物受干旱影响均比较显著,赤峰、锡林郭勒盟和乌兰察布市的气象单产受干旱影响较大,呼伦贝尔市和巴彦淖尔市受干旱影响较小;对单产变化的预估结果表明,降水量维持在气候均值水平时,温度如果增加0.2℃、0.5℃和1.0℃时绝大多数盟（市）会减产,增温幅度越大,减产越多;当增温0.2℃时,降水量增加越多增产幅度越大;增温0.5℃时,只有降水量增加20%以上才有望增产;温度增加1.0℃,降水量增加30%时大多数盟（市）仍会减产,仅在个别盟（市）有可能增产。

Analysis on Effects of Global Warming on Three Major Crop Yields in Inner Mongolia

The impact of droughts on yields was analyzed by using the statistical regression model,based on yields data of wheat,maize and potato from 10 cities or leagues of Inner Mongolia,and temperature and precipitation data（1961-2008） from 58 meteorological stations.The results showed that the temperature increased during crop growth season in last 48 years.The average temperature of 10 cities during 2001-2008 increased 0.9℃ comparing to that during 1971-2000,the average precipitation reduced 48.9mm at the same time.The aridity index of wheat,maize and potato increased 1.29,1.82 and 1.49,respectively.Additionally,it has been also revealed in the outcomes of pre-estimated yield that most of the regions would have a declining yield with increase intervals of the temperature at 0.2℃,0.5℃ and 1.0℃ while the precipitation keeps at the climatological mean level.The more temperature rising,the more yield would decrease.Furthermore,the yield would increase with more rainfall while the temperature going up by 0.2℃ above the climatological mean temperature.Only with more than 20 percent increase amount of precipitation would the yield increase possibly when the rising temperature interval reaches to 0.5℃.With the temperature interval goes up to 1.0℃,most regions perform a decrease yield even with 30 percent increase of precipitation,just few of the regions show a little increase yield.