基于ORYZA2000模型的湘赣双季稻气候生产潜力

应用湘赣地区1961-2006年25个气象观测站的逐日气象资料以及31个农业气象观测站1981-2006年双季稻发育期、生物量观测等资料,对水稻生长模型ORYZA2000进行参数调试和验证。以双季稻发育速率参数为主,结合地形、气候、水稻熟性分布和当地生产实际,将湘赣双季稻区划分为7个区域,实现了ORYZA2000在湘赣双季稻地区的应用。利用本地化后的ORYZA2000模型模拟湘赣地区早、晚稻的逐日生长过程,分析了湘赣地区1961-2006年双季稻气候生产潜力的时空演变规律。分析表明,赣东、赣中、湘中一带双季稻气候生产潜力较高,湘北、湘南、赣南、赣东北双季稻气候生产潜力较低,其空间分布与实际生产情况相符。从历史演变看,25个站中有18个站的双季稻气候生产潜力呈下降趋势,每年下降22-86kg/hm^2不等。初步分析表明,湘赣地区双季稻气候生产潜力下降是由于生育期天数减少、生育期内辐射（日照时数）减少和（或）积温上升3个因素的共同影响。辐射减少导致光合作用产物减少,积温上升意味着生育期内温度升高,或产生高温胁迫,或引发生育期缩短,均对水稻生长不利。

Studies on Potential Climate Productivity of Double Rice in Hunan and Jiangxi Provinces Based on ORYZA 2000 Model

Based on the daily meteorological data of 25 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2006 and phonological and biomass data of double rice of 31 agro-meteorological stations from 1981 to 2006 in Hunan and Jiangxi Province, the ORYZA 2000 model was calibrated and validated. The rice production areas in two provinces were divided into seven areas according to the phonological parameters, climate, land use form and rice genetic characteristics. The localized ORYZA 2000 model was run at regional scale. The potential climate productivity of double rice were calculated in 25 agro-meteorological stations from 1961 to 2006 based on the simulated results of early rice and late rice. The characteristics of the spatial distribution and temporal variation were analyzed. The results showed that the potential climate productivity was relative higher in the east and central Jiangxi Province and central Hunan Province. The regions with lower potential climate productivity were located in the north and the south of Hunan and the northeast and the south Jiangxi. In regard to the temporal variation, the potential climate productivity in 18 stations among 25 stations decreased with time gradually, which reduce from 22 to 86 kg/ha each year. The preliminary analysis showed that the reduction of the potential climate productivity was due to shorter growing period, less radiation and increment of accumulated temperature during the growing period. The less radiation resulted in less photosynthesis substance, while the higher temperature led to stress on rice growing, or shorter growing period of rice.