贵州西部马铃薯生育期气候因子变化规律及其影响分析

利用贵州西部14县(市)1978-2009年连续32a的马铃薯生育期(3-9月)的定位观测和加密观测资料、1960-2009年3-9月地面平行观测气象资料,采用气候变化倾向率、Morlet小波分析、Cubic函数以及积分回归等方法,对贵州西部马铃薯生育期主要气候因子变化规律及其对马铃薯生长的影响进行分析,以期为马铃薯产业发展提供依据。结果表明,研究区马铃薯生育期平均气温年际变化呈极显著上升趋势,倾向率为1.96℃/10a(P<0.01),马铃薯块茎膨大期(7-8月)气温日较差呈显著下降趋势,倾向率为-1.82℃/10a(P<0.05);马铃薯生育期降水量年际变化呈显著下降趋势,倾向率为-50.26mm/10a(P<0.05),日照时数年际变化呈显著下降趋势,倾向率为-0.62h/10a(P<0.05)。同时降水量存在3a和9a的周期变化,日照时数存在3a、8a和48a的周期变化。马铃薯播种到收获需历时155～175d,>10℃积温达2100～3800℃.d,降水量730～1300mm,日照时数820～1100h。气温对马铃薯产量形成为负效应,但块茎膨大期气温日较差对其为正效应,且该期对气温变化十分敏感;降水量对马铃薯产量形成除开花期(5月中旬-6月下旬)为负效应外,其余时段均为正效应,马铃薯开花期到块茎膨大期(5月中旬-8月下旬)对降水量变化十分敏感;日照时数对马铃薯产量形成除苗期(3月下旬-5月中旬)为负效应外,其余时段均为正效应,马铃薯开花前期(5月中旬-下旬)和块茎膨大期对日照时数变化十分敏感。

Climate Factors Variation during Potato Growth Period and Its Effect in Western Guizhou Province

Using the fixed position and intensive observation data during potato growth period （March to September） from 1978 to 2009,and the surface meteorological data （March to September） from 1960 to 2009 from 14 counties in western Guizhou province, authors analyzed the climatic factors variation, including temperature, precipitation and sunshine in western Guizhou province and their effect on potato growth by using the methods of climatic tendency, wavelet analysis, cubic function and the integral regression. The results showed that the inter-annual temperature during potato growth period （March to September） increased significantly, with a climatic trend rate of 1.96℃/10y （P 〈 0. 01 ） and decreased significantly during potato tuber expansion period （July to August） ,with climatic trend rate of -1.82℃ /10y （P 〈0. 05）. Both the inter-annual precipitation and sunshine hours decreased significantly during potato growth period （ March to September）, with Linear regression trend rate of - 50. 26mm/lOy （ P 〈 0. 05 ） and -0.62h/10y （ P 〈 0. 05）. The precipitation had two periodic changes with 3 years and 9 years,and the sunshine hours had three periodic changes with 3 years,8 years and 48 years. It need accumulated temperature 〉 10℃ of 2100 - 3800℃·d, 730- 1300mm precipitation and 820 - 1100h sunshine hours during whole potato growth period. The temperature had negative effect to potato yield and the yield was sensitive to the temperature except for the tuber expansion period. Precipitation was positive to potato yield except for florescence （ middle May to late June） , and it was sensitive to precipitation from florescence to tuber expansion period （middle May to late August）. The sunshine was positive to potato yield and it was sensitive to sunshine in early florescence （late Mar. to middle May） and the tuber expansion period, except for seedling period （middle to late in May）.