气候变化情景下宁夏马铃薯单产变化模拟

将DSSAT—SUBSTOR马铃薯模拟模型与PRECIS区域气候模式相嵌套，在25km×25km网格尺度上，模拟未来气候情景下宁夏马铃薯产量变化，分析影响未来马铃薯产量变化的主要原因。结果表明：在目前的品种、种植方式、田间管理不变的情况下，两种温室气体排放方案下，从2020s到2080s宁夏马铃薯单产均降低8．7％～41．3％，A2情景下马铃薯减产幅度大于B2情景，中部干旱带减产幅度大于南部山区。造成马铃薯减产的主要原因是，（1）未来宁夏马铃薯主产区马铃薯生育期内降水量减少，而马铃薯需水量显著增加，马铃薯缺水量加大；（2）马铃薯块茎膨大期气温显著升高，不利于块茎养分积累。

Simulation of Changes of Potato Yields under Different Climate Change Scenarios in Ningxia

The changes of potato yields were simulated in Ningxia at 25km×25km grid under A2 and B2 emission scenarios by using DSSAT-SUBSTOR associated with the climate change scenario produced by PRECIS （Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies）. The main reasons affected the future changes of potato yields were analyzed. The results showed that keeping potato varieties and field managements unchanged and taking account of CO2 fertilization, potato yield would decrease from 8.7% to 41.3% under B2 and A2 scenarios. The yield reduction under A2 scenario would be more than under B2 scenario and the yield reduction in the South Ningxia would be more than that in the Central Ningxia. The major cause would be water scarcity increased and temperature increased in tuber growth.