气候变化对新疆地区棉花生产的影响

经分析发现新疆棉区近50年来气侯变暖变湿并且日照时数明显减少。利用COPRAS动力评估模型研究得出：气侯变化对新疆棉区不同区域的棉花生长发育影响是不同的，北疆棉区、南疆盆地西缘区和南疆盆地东缘区棉花的开花期和吐絮期明显提前，棉花停止生长期明显延后，70年代、80年代和90年代比60年代全生育期分别平均延长8．2d、2．4d和5．2d；近50年来新疆地区棉花模拟产量明显增加，平均增产为15．7kg/hm^2/10年，尤其在北疆棉区。棉花模拟产量波动性明显加强，说明受气侯变化的影响棉花生产风险也在加大。

Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Xingjiang Autonomous Region

The temperature and the precipitation had been increasing, but the duration of sunshine decreasing in the cotton production regions in Xingjiang in the past 50 years.The impacts of climate change on cotton are studied with the COPRAS model.The results showed that the climate change had a positive impact on the growth and yield of cotton during the last 50 years.The date of the flowering and open boll period of cotton was earlier and the growing period was delayed obviously.The whole growing season of cotton was delayed for 8.2, 2.4 and 5.2 days in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s than that in the 1960s respectively.The cotton yields had increased 15.7 kg/ha per ten years.The yield fluctuation of the cotton increased at the same time.That means that the risk of climate change for the cotton yields had increased.