基于信息扩散法的湖南水稻生产水灾风险评估

利用1987—2006年湖南省水稻播种面积、水灾成灾面积数据资料，基于模糊数学和信息扩散理论，以县为单位，计算了湖南各地水稻生产遭受水灾的风险概率，运用GIS技术得到了水稻生产水灾风险评估及其区划。结果表明，各风险水平下湖南水稻生产遭受水灾的概率总体上北部大于南部，这对提高社会公众对水稻生产中水灾的防灾减灾意识和因地制宜调整农业生产结构有指导意义。

Flooding Risk Assessment of Rice Production Based on Information Diffusion in Hunan Province

Based on the statistical data of rice planting area and flooding damaged area during the period of 1987-2006 in Hunan Province, the probability of flooding risk of rice production was calculated by using the theory of the fuzzy Mathematics and information diffusion. The flooding risk assessment of rice production and its regionalization were obtained based on GIS. The results showed that the probability of flooding risk of rice production decreased at the different risk grades from the North to the South of HIunan Province. Therefore, the conclusion would give direction in enhancing the awareness of the public to prevent and mitigate disasters, and adjusting the agricultural production structure.