岷江上游汶川县耕地变化及驱动力研究

该文研究了汶川县的耕地变化情况，并运用定性与定量结合的方法分析了导致耕地变化的原因。研究结果表明：汶川县在过去的几十年里耕地的数量发生了变化，呈现一种在波动中缓慢变化的趋势；其变化除了受政策和自然因素影响外，人口和经济增长对耕地变化也起到了进一步的促进作用。在此基础上，对该区耕地资源的利用提出了建议，以促进地方土地资源的可持续利用。

Variation of cultivated land and the driving forces in Wenchuan County in the upstream of Min River

Taking Wenchuan County in the upstream of Min River as a case, the cultivated land use change and the driving forces were explored using the principal component analysis through SPSS software. The results show that the size of cultivated land area changes with the slow fluctuation in Wenchuan county during the last decade. The driving forces were determined through PCA (principal components analyse) between cultivated land and related socio-economic factors. The policies are the principal driving force which leads to the change of cultivated land in the study area, the increase of population is the second, and the economy increasing is the third. Some suggestions are proposed for the rational use of the cultivated land to accelerate the sustainable development based on the cultivated land and its driving forces.